803
FXUS64 KLIX 220434
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO HIGH 70S IS MAKING FOR A MISERABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY. HEAT
INDICES HAVE BEEN RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND 110F, BUT PREDOMINANTLY
JUST BELOW THE 108F CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES HAVE BEEN RECORDED SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE LIKE YESTERDAY AT
AROUND 108 TO 110F AT MSY, APS, AND REG THOUGH THE LATTER TWO
TEMPERATURE SENSORS MIGHT BE RUNNING A TAD TOO WARM.
AS WE HAVE REACHED PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EARLY AFTERNOON,
LAKE AND SEA BREEZES ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE WITH SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY DUSK. IN OTHER WORDS, A FAIRLY TYPICAL
SUMMER DAY.
BY SUNDAY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST CONUS
LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL HEATWAVE FOR THAT REGION OF THE COUNTRY,
BUT ALSO HELP TO GRADUALLY ALLEVIATE THE SUPPRESSION OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON
POPS FOR SUNDAY SHOWING MORE ISOLATED STORMS THAN PRIOR
INDICATING THE LINGERING AFFECTS OF THE RIDGING AND LACK OF LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO PREDOMINANTLY THE
LAKE AND SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY POP UP
STORMS. AS SUCH, POPS WERE BACKED DOWN BELOW 50%, AND COVERAGE AS
A WHOLE APPEARS TO BE MORE COMPARABLE TO TODAY INSTEAD OF MORE
SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD. EVEN STILL, WITH EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO CLIMB AND THUS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (CLOSER TO 100-105F HEAT INDICES).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
AS THE RIDGING ERODES AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BERMUDA HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE'LL
BEGIN TO SEE MORE SUBTLE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHS/EASTERLY WAVES
FOLLOW THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ON
CERTAIN DAYS. GLOBAL GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR PASSAGE OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES WITH A MORE CLASSIC CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE MARINE AREA IN THE
MORNING TRANSITIONING TO MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND.
AS WE TRANSITION TO THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR HOW THE MASSIVE 597DAM RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD AND BREAKS DOWN AS TO WHETHER WE MAY SEE A
LITTLE RESURGENCE IN HIGHER TEMPS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO END
THE WEEK NEXT WEEK OR NOT. NO INDICATIONS THIS COULD BRING HEAT
INDICES TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME, BUT HOT AND HUMID
IS GOING TO BE THE RULE NOT THE EXCEPTION LIVING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ANYWAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS EVENING.
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED, BUT A RATHER EXTENSIVE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER HIGH MAY NOW BE JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SUSCEPTIBLE TO EASTERLY WAVES/INVERTED
TROUGHS. RADAR SHOWING A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, AND WOULDN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME MOVING ONSHORE PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. THE CIRRUS SHIELD COULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL LOWERED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT SUNRISE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE
WILL AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF TSRA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
PRIMARILY BEYOND 18Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM ALMOST NO TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO SCATTERED AREAL
COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T HAVE ANY REAL LIMITING FACTORS
OTHER THAN ORGANIZED FORCING. WILL CARRY PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (18Z-24Z), BUT THE FIRST FEW CELLS OF
CONVECTION COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS 15-16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE WE STAY POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE BROAD BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. A FEW POP UP STORMS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT, BUT IS MORE
LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS, HIGH WINDS AND SEAS, FREQUENTLY
LIGHTNING, AND WATERSPOUTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 92 72 91 / 30 30 20 40
BTR 74 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 70
ASD 73 92 74 91 / 10 30 20 60
MSY 78 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 70
GPT 76 90 76 89 / 20 40 20 60
PQL 73 92 74 91 / 30 40 20 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...TJS
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