012
FXUS64 KLIX 220837
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
TODAY AND MONDAY SHOULD LOOK A LOT ALIKE, OR "DIDDO" FROM MY ERA. A
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF SH/TS EACH DAY AND QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM EACH DAY BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP, AND A COOLING
STORM WILL HELP LOWER THE HEAT ISSUE. THESE ARE MOVING AT A GOOD
PACE, SO FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING IN THE USUAL AREAS. WE CAN DISCUSS THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THOUGH AND SHOW THE MAIN SYSTEMS THAT ARE AFFECTING OUR
AREA. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS IS CAUSING
THE DEEP FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE
AREA. THE UPPER TO MID LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH DOES NOT HAVE ANY
REAL IMPACTS HERE AND ITS A GOOD THING SINCE IT WOULD BE A VERY HOT
ISSUE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
ANYTHING WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO
ENHANCE TO NEGATE OUR CHANCES OF RAIN. THE PRECIP NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
MAY BE ABOUT 10% HIGHER THAN WE SHOULD SEE, WHILE TUE LOOKS TO BE ON
THE MONEY. WE WILL LIFT PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY, AND THIS MAY
COME IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. AFTER TUE, PRECIP NUMBERS FALL AGAIN TO A MORE NORMAL
VALUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DRIVE THESE LEVELS
LOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS FCAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS EACH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT AND
RISE ABRUPTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 93 72 92 72 / 40 10 40 10
BTR 94 74 94 74 / 40 20 70 10
ASD 93 73 91 74 / 30 10 50 20
MSY 93 79 92 79 / 30 10 70 30
GPT 91 76 91 76 / 40 20 50 30
PQL 93 73 92 73 / 40 20 60 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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