493
FXUS64 KLIX 221738
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
TODAY AND MONDAY SHOULD LOOK A LOT ALIKE, OR "DIDDO" FROM MY ERA. A
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF SH/TS EACH DAY AND QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM EACH DAY BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP, AND A COOLING
STORM WILL HELP LOWER THE HEAT ISSUE. THESE ARE MOVING AT A GOOD
PACE, SO FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING IN THE USUAL AREAS. WE CAN DISCUSS THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE THOUGH AND SHOW THE MAIN SYSTEMS THAT ARE AFFECTING OUR
AREA. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS IS CAUSING
THE DEEP FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE
AREA. THE UPPER TO MID LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH DOES NOT HAVE ANY
REAL IMPACTS HERE AND ITS A GOOD THING SINCE IT WOULD BE A VERY HOT
ISSUE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
ANYTHING WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO
ENHANCE TO NEGATE OUR CHANCES OF RAIN. THE PRECIP NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
MAY BE ABOUT 10% HIGHER THAN WE SHOULD SEE, WHILE TUE LOOKS TO BE ON
THE MONEY. WE WILL LIFT PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY, AND THIS MAY
COME IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. AFTER TUE, PRECIP NUMBERS FALL AGAIN TO A MORE NORMAL
VALUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. BASED ON LOCATION OF
AGITATED CU ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES, HAVE ADJUSTED PROB30
TIMINGS AND LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS RESULTING IN IFR OR
EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AS STORMS INITIATE IN THE COMING HOURS.
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AGAIN TODAY, BUT TSRA IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY AT BTR, MCB, AND HUM FOLLOWED BY ASD, HDC
AND MSY IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 FOR GPT FOR
THE NEXT HOUR, BUT THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT. A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE AN EARLIER SHOT
AT TSRA IMPACTS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PRIOR DAYS ESPECIALLY AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS FCAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS EACH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT AND
RISE ABRUPTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 92 72 92 / 20 40 20 40
BTR 74 94 74 92 / 20 50 20 70
ASD 73 91 74 92 / 10 40 20 60
MSY 79 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 70
GPT 76 91 76 90 / 20 40 30 50
PQL 73 92 73 93 / 20 40 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TE
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