353
FXUS64 KLIX 222349 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
649 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES UPWARDS OF 107F, MAINLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND PEARL RIVER BASIN. AGITATED CU IS BEGINNING
TO BECOME MORE APPARENT ALONG THE LAKE AND SEA BREEZES INDICATING
INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IS LIKELY
IMMINENT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRETTY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY WITH WEAK SHEAR, HIGH DCAPE (>1000 J/KG), AND EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW STEERING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THEY LAY
OUT INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND SOUTHERN MS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIKE
IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SUPPRESSIVE, HIGHER
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS KEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK AND LOWER MID-
LEVEL RH KEEPING UPDRAFTS SKINNY AND WEAKER.
MID-LEVEL RH VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PASSING WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF FOLLOWING THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING 597DAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE A BOOST TO THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MARINE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE OF A
TRADITIONAL SUMMER DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING ENCOURAGES SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WHICH THEN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE SO POPS ARE STILL NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT WAS ONCE ADVERTISED,
BUT THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN SINCE LAST THURSDAY
FOR THE AREA. THIS SURGE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS QUITE MUGGY AND MISERABLE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLES OF THE SUMMER
REGIME BETWEEN MARINE AND LAND. THEREAFTER, ANOTHER PUNCH OF MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL LOOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LEADING TO
MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AND ALSO
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START CREEPING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
AND COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS IS
THAT THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAKDOWN, BUT THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. WE'LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME UNTIL IT'S RESOLVED WHETHER AN UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO CUT-OFF UNDERNEATH THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR AREA AGAIN AND COOL US OFF, OR WE
STAY WARMER AND DRIER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF EARLY CYCLE CONVECTION, VFR IS MOSTLY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A WEAK FOG SIGNAL
FOR MCB, BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...COVERED THIS AND POTENTIAL LOWER
VIS/CIGS WITH PROBS FOR NOW. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE WE STAY POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WIND
SHIFTS, HIGH WINDS AND SEAS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND WATERSPOUTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 92 72 93 / 20 40 20 30
BTR 74 93 75 94 / 20 50 20 60
ASD 73 92 74 93 / 10 40 20 40
MSY 79 92 79 93 / 10 40 20 60
GPT 75 91 76 92 / 20 40 30 40
PQL 73 93 73 94 / 20 40 30 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...TJS
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