429
FXUS64 KLIX 230835
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A VERY COMMON TREND WHERE THEY CONTRADICT
THEMSELVES. THE MAJOR PART OF THIS IS SETTING PRECIP CHANCES AT 80%
OR HIGHER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. THESE TWO RARELY(IF EVER)
MATCH UP. FOR ONE, IF THERE IS A 60% OR HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND IT
IS VERIFIED TO BE ACCURATE FOR THAT DAY, THEN THERE IS JUST TOO MANY
STORMS AROUND WITH CLOUD DEBRIS AND COOLING RAINS TO ALLOW THE TEMP
TO CLIMB TO THE MID 90S. BUT IF THE THE HIGH TEMP IS ACCURATE FOR
THE DAY, THEN THERE CAN'T BE SO MANY STORMS AROUND WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR MAX INSOLATION. THERE ARE ALWAYS THOSE ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS THAT
DON'T GET RAIN AND REACH THESE MID 90S TEMPS DURING THE DAY
EVENTHOUGH THAT LOCATION HAD AN 80% CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT EVEN THAT
LOCATION FALLS INTO THIS SAME EXAMPLE BY NOT GETTING ANY RAIN OR
CLOUD COVER ALLOWING THEIR TEMPS TO RISE WITH A FULL DAY OF SUN.
SOOOO, WE KNOW THAT ONE OF THESE FIELDS IS NORMALLY IN ERROR AND
MOST TIMES, THE NBM IS CLOSER WITH TEMPS THAN IT IS WITH PRECIP
NUMBERS AND THEREFORE WE TRIM BACK ON PRECIP NUMBERS WHEN TEMPS
REACH THE MID 90S IN MODEL FIELDS. THIS EXACT SCENARIO OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY WHERE THE PRECIP NUMBERS ARE TOO HIGH. WE
ARE SHOWING A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TODAY WITH 30-40% WHICH HAS COME
WAY DOWN FROM YESTERDAYS VALUES AND THIS LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. TUE WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. WHEN THIS OCCURS, THE SST
CAN COME INTO PLAY PROVIDING THE HEAT CONTENT TO DEVELOP NOCTURNALS
AND STORMS ARE MORE EASILY PROMOTED WHICH LEAD TO A NATURALLY HIGHER
PRECIP NUMBER. 50-80% WITH PROPER PLACEMENT LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AS
SST ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A 90F SHOWING UP AT GRAND
ISLE. THIS SHOULD EASILY HELP DEVELOP NOCTURNALS TONIGHT INTO TUE
GIVING EVERYONE A BETTER CHANCE OF COOLING SH/TS. THIS WILL BE
INDUCED VIA AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH. ONCE IT IS WEST OF THE
AREA, WE WILL FALL BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PRECIP PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
DROPPING BACK INTO A TYPICAL PRECIP PATTERN IS SHOWING UP IN THE
MODEL FIELDS VIA THE HIGH TEMPS MOVING INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN
STARTING WED. PRECIP NUMBERS MAY BE TOO HIGH AFTER TUE BUT WE WILL
BACK THESE DOWN A BIT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT EASTERLY
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY BY THE WEEKEND BUT WE WILL NEED
TO GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME TO GIVE ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA BY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY DRIVE THESE LEVELS LOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS FCAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THU. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS DEVELOPING WILL START TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME STRONG CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT AND RISE ABRUPTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 93 72 92 72 / 30 20 30 10
BTR 94 74 92 74 / 40 20 70 10
ASD 93 73 91 73 / 30 20 40 10
MSY 94 79 91 79 / 40 20 60 10
GPT 92 76 90 75 / 40 30 30 10
PQL 94 73 93 73 / 40 20 30 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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