547
FXUS64 KLIX 231819
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
119 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A VERY COMMON TREND WHERE THEY CONTRADICT
THEMSELVES. THE MAJOR PART OF THIS IS SETTING PRECIP CHANCES AT 80%
OR HIGHER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. THESE TWO RARELY(IF EVER)
MATCH UP. FOR ONE, IF THERE IS A 60% OR HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND IT
IS VERIFIED TO BE ACCURATE FOR THAT DAY, THEN THERE IS JUST TOO MANY
STORMS AROUND WITH CLOUD DEBRIS AND COOLING RAINS TO ALLOW THE TEMP
TO CLIMB TO THE MID 90S. BUT IF THE THE HIGH TEMP IS ACCURATE FOR
THE DAY, THEN THERE CAN'T BE SO MANY STORMS AROUND WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR MAX INSOLATION. THERE ARE ALWAYS THOSE ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS THAT
DON'T GET RAIN AND REACH THESE MID 90S TEMPS DURING THE DAY
EVENTHOUGH THAT LOCATION HAD AN 80% CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT EVEN THAT
LOCATION FALLS INTO THIS SAME EXAMPLE BY NOT GETTING ANY RAIN OR
CLOUD COVER ALLOWING THEIR TEMPS TO RISE WITH A FULL DAY OF SUN.
SOOOO, WE KNOW THAT ONE OF THESE FIELDS IS NORMALLY IN ERROR AND
MOST TIMES, THE NBM IS CLOSER WITH TEMPS THAN IT IS WITH PRECIP
NUMBERS AND THEREFORE WE TRIM BACK ON PRECIP NUMBERS WHEN TEMPS
REACH THE MID 90S IN MODEL FIELDS. THIS EXACT SCENARIO OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY WHERE THE PRECIP NUMBERS ARE TOO HIGH. WE
ARE SHOWING A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TODAY WITH 30-40% WHICH HAS COME
WAY DOWN FROM YESTERDAYS VALUES AND THIS LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. TUE WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. WHEN THIS OCCURS, THE SST
CAN COME INTO PLAY PROVIDING THE HEAT CONTENT TO DEVELOP NOCTURNALS
AND STORMS ARE MORE EASILY PROMOTED WHICH LEAD TO A NATURALLY HIGHER
PRECIP NUMBER. 50-80% WITH PROPER PLACEMENT LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AS
SST ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A 90F SHOWING UP AT GRAND
ISLE. THIS SHOULD EASILY HELP DEVELOP NOCTURNALS TONIGHT INTO TUE
GIVING EVERYONE A BETTER CHANCE OF COOLING SH/TS. THIS WILL BE
INDUCED VIA AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH. ONCE IT IS WEST OF THE
AREA, WE WILL FALL BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PRECIP PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
DROPPING BACK INTO A TYPICAL PRECIP PATTERN IS SHOWING UP IN THE
MODEL FIELDS VIA THE HIGH TEMPS MOVING INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN
STARTING WED. PRECIP NUMBERS MAY BE TOO HIGH AFTER TUE BUT WE WILL
BACK THESE DOWN A BIT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT EASTERLY
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY BY THE WEEKEND BUT WE WILL NEED
TO GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME TO GIVE ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ALONG THE LAKE AND SEA
BREEZES PROVIDING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR IMPACTS TO TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. ASD IS ALREADY SEEING THESE IMPACTS WITH RA, MVFR VIS,
AND 15-20KT GUSTS. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY
INLAND TERMINALS AT HDC, BTR, AND MCB AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
PROB30S HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST FORECAST TIMING
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT NIGHT GUSTING TO 10-15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYTIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY
TO START EARLIER TOMORROW STARTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
MOVING INLAND INTO THE LATE MORNING AND HAVE ADDED PROB30S TO MSY,
NEW, AND GPT TO START AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WHILE WE STAY POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE PASSES BY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
AND CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS, HIGH WINDS AND SEAS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND WATERSPOUTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 92 72 95 / 30 30 0 20
BTR 74 93 74 96 / 30 60 10 30
ASD 73 92 73 95 / 30 40 0 20
MSY 80 92 79 95 / 20 60 10 20
GPT 75 91 75 94 / 30 30 10 20
PQL 73 94 73 97 / 30 30 10 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page