801
FXUS64 KLIX 240829
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
AS AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ENHANCED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. GOOD FROM A TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE
OR AT LEAST SOME HELP AS MUCH OF THE EAST IS BAKING UNDER THE 598DAM
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH DCAPE VALUES STILL
RUNNING AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG, THINK WIND WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE
ISSUE IN THE WIDER/MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH
UNDER THE HIGH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY, COVERAGE
WILL BE MINIMIZED...THOUGH NOT ZERO WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARISHES AND PERHAPS OVER THE MS GULF COAST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT POTENTIAL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES MAINLY OUTSIDE THE SHORT
TERM WINDOW. AS POPS DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SOAR, ESPECIALLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 RIDGE CENTERS A BIT CLOSER
TO OUR REGION OVER THE TENNESSEE OR LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. WE
WILL NEED TO CERTAINLY WATCH FOR THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES FOR
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT LIMITING FACTOR IF WE
CAN MIX A BIT OF DRY AIR DOWN, WHICH GLOBALS ARE HINTING AT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE HIGH(AROUND THE MID 90S) AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP CAN
BECOME SEVERE AND THIS COULD BECOME THE CASE BY THU, SO A LOW BUT
CREDIBLE RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE BY THU
AND MAYBE EVEN FRI. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND AS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUES EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA ALL DAY
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DRIVE THESE LEVELS LOWER. THIS SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT COASTAL SITES DURING THE MORNING AND INLAND SITES BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS FCAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THU. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS DEVELOPING WILL BE TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME
STRONG CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT AND RISE ABRUPTLY. WED SHOULD SHOW A
LULL IN AMOUNT OF STORMS BUT CHANCES RISE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 93 71 94 72 / 40 10 20 20
BTR 93 74 95 75 / 70 10 30 20
ASD 92 73 95 73 / 50 10 20 20
MSY 93 79 95 78 / 60 10 20 20
GPT 90 75 94 75 / 40 10 20 30
PQL 93 73 96 73 / 40 10 20 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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