900
FXUS64 KLIX 242003
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE STRONG H5 RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE WESTERN TIER HAVING
THE BEST COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GOING INTO TONIGHT, THE WAVE WILL BE
REPLACED WITH UPPER RIDGING AS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
CENTER OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. WITH THE RIDGING,
THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON WEDNESDAY.
INVERSELY, AS POPS DECREASE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE, AND WITH
THE STRONG RIDGE CLOSE, HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR RIGHT NOW THAT IS KEEPING US FROM
REACHING THOSE THRESHOLDS IS PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR MIXING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REALLY TAKING
OFF. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TYPICAL SUMMER IS MOSTLY HOW THE LONG TERM CAN BE CHARACTERIZED.
HOT CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
EARLY ON IT STARTS WITH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGING
RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, EVENTUALLY AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE WEST OVER FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD SPLITTING AND
WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MORE
ROBUST RIDGE, COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS WILL ALSO HELP MITIGATE TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT,
BUT STILL MOST WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS
WEEKEND AND RIGHT INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
TERMINALS. CONTINUED THE PROBS AND TEMPOS RESPECTIVELY. WINDS MAY
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. LOW VIS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR
MCB AND PERHAPS BTR AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
OVERALL, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CYCLE. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. THE BETTER
POTENTIAL WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW BEINGS TO SETTLES NEARBY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE
GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. WATERSPOUTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 94 72 94 / 10 10 20 30
BTR 74 95 75 95 / 10 10 10 40
ASD 72 94 73 94 / 10 20 20 40
MSY 79 95 78 94 / 10 10 10 40
GPT 75 94 74 93 / 10 20 30 40
PQL 73 96 72 94 / 10 30 40 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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