782
FXUS64 KLIX 062351
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
651 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
WEAK UPPER RIDGING HAS RETREATED WESTWARD AND A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HAS LEFT AN
OVERALL WEAKNESS/WEAK TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND WILL LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SEEING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP
ACROSS LAND AREAS, AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SIMILARLY WANES.
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T LIKELY, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, WITH ONE OR TWO
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE, MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NEARER THE
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - SITTING AROUND 1.5-1.8 INCHES -
BUT SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2" IN A SHORT-ISH PERIOD OF TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
LONGER TERM FORECAST IS GENERALLY ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER HIGHS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME OF THE MINUTIAE WILL
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY STARING TO FIRE ACROSS LAND
AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. FAIRLY TYPICAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH STORMS BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT FORECAST, INDIVIDUAL
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH A
COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGER STRATIFORM SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NOTED ON KHDC RADAR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT MCB GIVEN LATE AFTERNOON
RAINFALL HELPING TO SATURATE GROUNDS, BUT PROBABILITY OF IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IS LOW. PROB30 LINES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
STARTING AROUND 1800 UTC MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THAT WILL START NEAR THE COAST AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LAKE SHADOW OFF PONTCHARTRAIN AND DRIER
AIR COULD LIMIT IMPACTS TO ASD AND GPT LIKE IT DID TODAY SO HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING PROB30S THERE FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
ONSHORE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK GENERALLY RANGING FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT, PEAKING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 92 71 92 / 20 60 10 60
BTR 74 92 73 93 / 30 70 10 70
ASD 72 92 73 93 / 20 50 10 60
MSY 77 93 77 93 / 20 60 10 60
GPT 74 91 75 91 / 10 50 10 50
PQL 72 92 73 92 / 10 40 10 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...DM
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