065
FXUS64 KLIX 081836
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
136 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
MOVEMENT OF THE INTRA-HIGH WEAKNESS FROM OVER THE TOP OF US AND TO
THE WEST HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR SOME
MARGINALLY STRONG CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AS WE EXPECT WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, THIS WILL DIE OUT THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING, THE
NOSE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVE TO THE WEST UNTIL
IT SITS JUST SOUTH OF US. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW UNTIL WE FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE DIPPING DOWN AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE REBUILDING SW CONUS RIDGE TODAY. THIS WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY, SLOW DOWN AS IT GETS STUCK IN BETWEEN THE RIDGES ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT, AND BEGIN TO LOSE ITS COHERENCE. AS IT DOES SO,
THIS WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL TREND BACK UP IN POPS EACH AFTERNOON
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SETTLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
VICINITY WILL BRING THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES BACK INTO PLACE
WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BACK TO THE 60%+ RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT OF AN INCREASE
IN THE PW TO AROUND 2" AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF INTENSE RAIN RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE
MID 90S WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPS INTO
THE 105ISH RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, TSRA OCCURRING THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIES OUT, COULD RESULT IN REDUCTIONS TO MVFR DUE TO
LOWERED VIS AND CIG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 15
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT,
PEAKING DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS EACH MORNING STARTING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STORMS MOST WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 91 72 91 / 20 60 20 70
BTR 74 92 75 92 / 20 70 20 80
ASD 73 93 73 92 / 10 60 20 80
MSY 77 93 77 93 / 10 60 20 80
GPT 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 30 70
PQL 73 93 73 92 / 20 50 40 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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