239
FXUS64 KLIX 091129
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
629 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN WHAT SEEM LIKE SEMIPERMANENT
RIDGES OVER THE SW CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR NEARLY CONTINUOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE SW CONUS RIDGE AND
GET STUCK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE PAST MONTH OR
SO, AND THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE
GOING AWAY JUST YET. NO COMPLAINTS HERE HONESTLY.
OUR NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, SLOW DOWN AS IT GETS STUCK IN BETWEEN THE RIDGES ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT, AND BEGIN TO LOSE ITS COHERENCE. A KEY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE TRENDS WITH THIS TROUGH APPEAR TO BE THAT IT IS
LOSING ITS COHERENCE MUCH QUICKER IN LATEST GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING AS MUCH ATMOSPHERE LIFT AS WHAT WAS
ADVERTISED IN FORECASTS FROM PRIOR DAYS. AS SUCH, WHILE POPS WILL BE
ELEVATED COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, WE HAVE SEEN NBM GUIDANCE
CORRECT LOWER CLOSER TO 50-60% TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THE LAKE AND SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION
ALONG THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR BY JUST AFTER NOON. PWAT VALUES HAVE
INCREASED SINCE THE PRIOR DAYS AS WELL WITH THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING
OBSERVING A 1.89" PWAT VALUE WHICH LANDS AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL
HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND CARRY HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAT
COULD LEAD TO STREET FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
AREAS ALONG THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
BY THURSDAY, THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA (PWAT
VALUES NEARING 2"). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE APPRECIABLE INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT FORECAST,
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES PER HOUR THAT CAN CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS AND
OVERWHELM STREET DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. THERE IS NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT
AMONGST GUIDANCE ON WHERE THE GREATEST FOCUS OF STORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ON THURSDAY WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT ONLY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
LAKE AND SEABREEZES, AS TYPICAL OF SUMMER AFTERNOONS. NBM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WANT TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST,
BUT CAM AND SREF GUIDANCE IS EMPHASIZING HIGHER POPS CLOSER TO THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER ARKLAMISS. THEREFORE, POPS HAVE BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD IN A BLEND WITH THIS GUIDANCE OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI, FLORIDA PARISHES, AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. REGARDLESS,
DESPITE THE HIGHER POPS, IT'S PROBABLE THAT THURSDAY WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE
WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES SO AFTERNOON POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WEIGHTED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WE'LL GRADUALLY SEE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGE ITSELF WESTWARD AND SPLIT OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSER TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD PUSH
CLOSER TO 110F THOUGH THESE HEAT INDICES MAY NOT BE PROLONGED BEFORE
RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM AFTERNOON STORMS KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN.
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER PIECE OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUTT SPLITTING OFF
AND BACKING UNDERNEATH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST SAW THIS PAST WEEKEND. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION, THE RIDGING OVERHEAD WOULD NOT LAST LONG BEFORE WE SEE
YET ANOTHER ENHANCED PERIOD OF AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW
CELLS BY LATE MORNING, WITH BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL USE PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT
WON'T RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET, WITH
VFR OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 15
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT,
PEAKING DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS EACH MORNING STARTING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 70 91 72 / 70 30 80 20
BTR 93 74 93 75 / 70 20 80 10
ASD 92 73 93 75 / 60 20 70 10
MSY 93 78 93 78 / 70 20 80 10
GPT 92 75 92 76 / 50 30 70 30
PQL 92 73 92 75 / 50 30 70 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TJS
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