783
FXUS64 KLIX 092350
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
650 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER HIGHS AND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
REGARDING CONVECTIVE THREATS, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT. HOWEVER,
A FEW UPDRAFTS COULD BECOME STRONG/TALL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A
VERY ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST THREAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS, SO WHILE AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW, A FEW EFFICIENT STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED AND NUISANCE-
TYPE FLOODING WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" IN A SHORTER
PERIOD OF TIME. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE AROUND SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING TOO OPPRESSIVE, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE. WHILE IT'S NOT COMFORTABLE, THESE VALUES ARE PRETTY
COMMON DURING SUMMER ON THE GULF COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST PLACES,
WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO UPPER HIGHS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD EXERTING
A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. NBM TENDS TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WHEN IT COMES TO RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CURRENT HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS COME DOWN SOMEWHAT AS THE SUN-TUES TIME FRAME GETS
CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES, WE COULD SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S DUE TO THE LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HIGHER AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES, AND CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS BY MONDAY. WITH
QUESTIONS IN TIMING, COVERAGE, AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION, THE
LEVEL OF HEAT RISK IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE CONFIDENCE SPECTRUM
AT THIS TIME, BUT IT'S CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TOMORROW, AND TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN
PLACE TO REFLECT THIS RISK. THE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS WILL NOT
LAST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILTIES
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND
LIGHTNING COULD IMPACT EACH TERMINAL. A LOWER CONVECTIVE RISK IS
IN PLACE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z, AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY PROB30
GROUPS AT THE TERMINALS WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING
IMPACTS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CONCERNS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. PG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONGOING AND DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS AT DIFFERENT
TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AROUND 00Z,
WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY'S
WEATHER TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 15
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT,
PEAKING DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 91 72 91 / 20 70 20 70
BTR 74 91 75 93 / 20 70 20 70
ASD 73 92 75 92 / 20 60 20 70
MSY 77 93 78 93 / 20 70 10 70
GPT 75 91 76 91 / 20 70 30 70
PQL 73 92 74 91 / 20 60 40 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...DM
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