927  
FXUS64 KLIX 102335  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
635 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
NOT MUCH TO SAY THAT HASN'T ALREADY BEEN SAID OVER THE LAST FEW  
DAYS... TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THE LOCAL AREA  
REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS AND UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.  
 
DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA AND SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DIMINISHING DURING THE  
EARLY EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. TOMORROW SHOULD SEE A  
NEAR REPEAT, BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE AS THE  
TROUGHING ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL START TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT AS THE  
MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY  
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN DAILY  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND AN ASSOCIATED INCREASED IN AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.  
 
TAKING A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE DATA, DESPITE THE HIGH BUILDING INTO  
THE LOCAL AREA, WE REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE PERIPHERY, SO SUBSIDENCE  
ALOFT DOESN'T APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO COMPLETELY SHUT  
OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO PUMP GULF  
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN  
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT  
BEING SAID, WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS  
AND STORMS. HOWEVER, IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE THE BENEFIT OF  
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN  
THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED  
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX OF 108  
DEGREES OR HIGHER) IN SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY, WITH AT  
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALUES NEAR HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (HEAT  
INDEX OF 113 DEGREES OR HIGHER) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS  
ALL DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
NBM SEEMS TO HAVE A CONTINUED HIGH BIAS IN THE FORECAST POPS  
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,  
WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME DECREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
STORMS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWN  
10-20% IN SOME AREAS MAINLY IN THE TUES/WED TIME FRAME TO CAP  
THEM AROUND 50%. MESSAGING WISE IT'S NOT A HUGE DIFFERENCE, BUT  
IT DOES TAKE THE COVERAGE DOWN FROM NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED. FURTHER  
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY STILL BE NEEDED GIVEN THAT EVEN 50% IS  
NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE MEMBERS IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE, BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO START SHOWING A POSSIBLE TREND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS A  
TERMINAL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z, AND  
THIS THREAT IS REFLECTED BY PROB30 WORDING IN THE FORECAST AT ALL  
OF THE TERMINALS. IF A STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL, BRIEF  
DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES, GUSTY  
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE  
30 MINUTES OR LESS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. TODAY AND TOMORROW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TYPICAL  
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CALLING FOR PROB30 OR  
TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AROUND 00Z,  
WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY  
LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION. IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD RIDGE  
OVER THE GULF, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST  
AT 10 KTS OR LESS ASIDE FROM AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE  
WHERE SEA/LAKE/LAND BREEZE CYCLES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON BOTH  
DIRECTION AND SPEED. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME  
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING  
DURING THE LATE NIGHT, PEAKING DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND  
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 71 90 72 93 / 20 40 20 50  
BTR 74 92 75 93 / 10 40 20 60  
ASD 73 92 74 93 / 10 40 20 50  
MSY 77 92 78 94 / 20 40 20 60  
GPT 74 91 75 92 / 20 40 20 50  
PQL 73 91 74 92 / 30 50 20 60  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...DM  
LONG TERM....DM  
AVIATION...PG  
MARINE...DM  
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