562  
FXUS64 KLIX 280448  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
 
IT WAS A WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WERE SOME LOCATIONS  
THAT EASILY GOT ABOVE 108 BUT WE ALSO HAD THE SAME REGIONS MIX OUT  
EFFICIENTLY AND THE HEAT INDEX STRUGGLED TO REACH 105. HOWEVER MAKE  
NO MISTAKE IT WAS STILL A TOASTY DAY AND WITH MORNING LOWS IN THOSE  
AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AN  
OPPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT. THAT SAID TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW LOOK  
TO BE DOWNRIGHT HOT.  
 
MAIN DRIVER IS THAT RIDGE WHICH WILL SIT RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA  
TODAY. MID LVL HGHTS COULD BE HIGHER THAN 598DM WHILE LL TEMPS  
INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. H85 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20-22C  
WHILE H925 WILL RANGE AROUND 27-29C. THIS SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN  
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THE OTHER NOTABLE THING  
WILL BE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES  
TO SLIDE WEST AND WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE  
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND  
THAT CAN OFTEN LEAD TO LOCALIZED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING, MAINLY  
ACROSS COASTAL MS. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CARRYING ANY 100S IT WOULD  
NOT BE A SHOCK TO SEE A FEW SITES TOP OUT AT THE CENTURY MARK THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
WITH THAT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR HEAT HEADLINES. GIVEN THE  
AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY  
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL HIT EXTREME HEAT  
WARNING CRITERIA. IF YOU HAVE BEEN PAYING ATTENTION THE SAME AREA OF  
OUR CWA HAS BEEN MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA AND THAT  
IS THE AREAS BETWEEN I 10 AND 12 SURROUNDING THE LAKES AND THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST OF MS. THOSE AREAS FLIRTED WITH WARNING CRITERIA  
YESTERDAY AND WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER TODAY THEY SHOULD  
HAVE LITTLE PROBLEMS SEEING HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 113/114  
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN A FEW SPOTS. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS ELSEWHERE.  
EVEN WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THE MORE  
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA I.E. SOUTHWEST MS AND THE FL PARISHES,  
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT VERY EFFICIENTLY AND EVEN TODAY STRUGGLED TO SEE  
HEAT INDEX READINGS ABV 105. WITH THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE  
WARMER IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DIFFICULT TO SEE HIGHER HEAT INDEX  
READINGS BUT MUCH OF THAT AREA AND THE IMMEDIATE LA COAST SHOULD  
REMAIN WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.  
 
TUESDAY IS A MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL STILL HAVE  
FAIRLY DECENT INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AT LEAST TO START THE DAY.  
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT TEMPS COULD BE EVERY BIT AS HOT ON  
TUESDAY AS THEY WILL BE TODAY. THE PROBLEM IS HOW FAST CONVECTION  
STARTS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE EAST. LIKE THE LAST 2 WEEKS THERE  
CONTINUES TO BE THAT ONE DAY WHERE THE BATTLE IS WHAT COMES FIRST WE  
HEAT UP AND CONVECTION ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY OR THE CONVECTION  
ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDAY OF THE DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWS DOWN  
THE HEATING. WELL THAT IS THE QUESTION AGAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE  
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF YET MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE  
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING IN  
REALLY QUICK TUESDAY. CONVECTION HAS MOVED IN FASTER THAN THE  
GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THE LAST 2 WEEKS AND IT FEELS LIKE THAT IS  
LIKELY TO HAPPEN AGAIN. THE NBM AGREES WITH THAT AND HAS FAIRLY HIGH  
POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THAT UNCERTAINTY WE HAVE HELD OFF  
ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY RIGHT NOW. /CAB/  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
 
AFTER THE FIRST 2 DAYS OF THE WEEK FIGHTING OFF THE HEAT WE MOVE  
BACK INTO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT  
OVERALL BUT THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. ONE GROUP IS A  
LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON RAIN AND KEEPING THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER  
AND WHILE THE OTHER SIDE STILL HAVE CONVECTION JUST NOT AS MUCH  
AND IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE HEAT WILL BE WELL WEST BY  
WEDNESDAY NOW AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE SLIDE INTO THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. IN FACT AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE AREA ABOUT 12-  
18 HOURS EARLIER. PWS QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE 2" AND LIKELY ABOVE 2.25".  
THE INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO COOL THE MID LVL  
TEMPS WITH H5 TEMPS BACK BELOW -5 AND EVEN -6C. COMBINE THAT WITH  
THE INCREASE IN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND CONVECTION SHOULD  
BE MORE NUMEROUS. THERE IS ONE PROBLEM FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND  
THAT PROBLEM MAY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVERNIGHT  
TUESDAY. IF THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THIS WILL  
WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEAVE A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND  
CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD TAKE QUITE A BIT OF THE DAY TO RECOVER AND  
GET CONVECTION TO REFIRE. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN IT  
MAY JUST OCCUR EARLIER LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.  
 
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL SEE DAILY BOUTS OF SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS STORMS. THIS MAY EVEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THIS  
IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE MID LVL PATTERN. THE  
RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US OUT HEAT WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST AND COULD  
EVEN BE NUDGING BACK TOWARDS THE PACIFIC WHILE L/W TROUGHING MAY  
SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS COULD HELP REINFORCE THE  
WEAKNESS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND ACTUALLY PROVIDING  
MORE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS WEEKEND, DEEP TROPICAL  
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED. IF WE DO SEE A LITTLE MORE OF A REINFORCEMENT TO THE  
WEAKNESS ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST  
BUILDS IN FASTER AND THE DEVELOPING L/W TROUGH DOESN'T DIG FAR  
ENOUGH SOUTH WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE SUMMER LIKE SCATTERED  
CONVECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. /CAB/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE  
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IF THERE IS ANY CONVECTION TOMORROW  
IT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. /CAB/  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLIDE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING  
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A WEAK WAVE MOVES  
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE A TAD LATE  
TODAY AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO  
KEEP FORM NEEDING ANY HEADLINES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY, WITH THE THREAT  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /CAB/|  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 10 10  
BTR 94 75 96 76 / 20 10 10 0  
ASD 94 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 10  
MSY 95 78 96 80 / 20 0 10 10  
GPT 93 77 98 79 / 20 0 10 20  
PQL 94 75 98 77 / 20 0 10 20  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-  
046>048-056-059-065>071-079-081-083.  
 
GM...NONE.  
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-  
083>085.  
 
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CAB  
LONG TERM....CAB  
AVIATION...CAB  
MARINE...CAB  
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