565  
FXUS64 KLIX 282329  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
629 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO KEEP A HOLD OF THE  
AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW, LEADING TO RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS  
WITH ACTUAL TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES NORTH  
OF 110 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN  
AROUND THE LAKES AND COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE WATER WILL  
HELP TO KEEP DEW POINT HIGHER, THUS KEEP HEAT INDICES ELEVATED.  
SO, EVEN THOUGH MORE HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED  
TOMORROW, UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE HEAT ADVISORY VS EXTREME HEAT WILL  
BE IS WHAT'S DELAYING AN ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, WE'LL  
HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DANGEROUSLY EXTREME HEAT BEFORE THE RIDGING  
AND SURFACE HIGH EXIT STAGE LEFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND RIDGING WILL HAVE SLID  
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MAKES ITS  
WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN  
ABOVE AVERAGE PW UP OVER 2.25 INCHES. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT  
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES COME WEDNESDAY AND HEAVY RAIN COULD BE AN  
ISSUE IF STORMS TRAIN OVER POPULATED AREAS.  
 
AFTER WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER RIDGE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST GULF AND SUPPORT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH  
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW  
ALOFT. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP OUR PW ELEVATED UP OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING THE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RAIN  
CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE KEEPING US AT  
LEAST SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED FROM THE HEAT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR-TERM VALID 00Z-06Z WILL BE ISOLATED TSRA  
NEAR THE KMSY AND KNEW TERMINALS, AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO  
PROGRESS SOUTHWEST OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. WILL HANDLE WITH AMD  
GIVEN HOW STORMS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD LIKELY SEE  
A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NE FOR KMSY BETWEEN 23:45 TO  
00:15Z, EARLIER FOR KNEW. OTHERWISE, THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE  
WITH TIME, AND SHOULD EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH VFR FOR ALL  
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY. NEXT ROUND OF SCT  
TSRA DEVELOPS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY,  
LIKELY PROGRESSING FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH MEAN STORM MOVEMENT  
TOWARDS THE SW. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY DOWNDRAFT  
WIND GUST TO THE SURFACE, PRODUCING WINDS OF AROUND 30-40KTS, AS  
WELL AS PERIODIC LOWER CIGS AND VIS IN HEAVY RAIN REDUCING FLIGHT  
CATEGORIES. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR BEST APPROXIMATED TIMING.  
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY  
LIGHT SFC WINDS. KLG  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLIDE WEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW  
UNTIL A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL  
INCREASE A TAD LATE TODAY AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BUT SHOULD  
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FORM NEEDING ANY HEADLINES. THE THREAT FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY, WITH THE  
THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 76 95 75 92 / 10 40 40 80  
BTR 77 97 77 92 / 0 30 50 80  
ASD 76 96 75 92 / 10 50 60 80  
MSY 81 97 80 93 / 10 40 50 80  
GPT 79 97 77 92 / 10 50 60 70  
PQL 77 95 75 92 / 20 60 60 70  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-  
046>048-056-059-065>071-079-081-083.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-  
046>048-056-059-064>071-088-090.  
 
GM...NONE.  
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-  
083>085.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-  
083>085.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JZ  
LONG TERM....JZ  
AVIATION...KLG  
MARINE...JZ  
 
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