441
FXUS64 KLIX 290444
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FOCUSED
ON THE OPPRESSIVE/DANGEROUS HEAT INDICIES BUT WANT TO GET THINGS
STARTED WITH TONIGHT GOING INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH A BROAD
OVERVIEW. OVERALL TONIGHT IS LOOKING QUIET UNDERNEATH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. BROAD 594DM RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US, WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO
STEADILY RETROGRADE WEST WITH TIME, SUPPORTING A PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER NW FLOW REGIME TO SET UP OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOOKING AT
GOES-19 TOTAL PW OVER THE SE US, ILLUSTRATES A LARGE PLUME OF
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/HIGH PW'S RANGING 2.0"+ JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST,
WHICH WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA NOW THAT WE RESIDE MORESO ON THE
WSW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CENTER. THIS, COMBINED WITH SUBTLE PVA
ALOFT AND STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION, MORE NUMEROUS UPSTREAM AND BUILD/PROGRESS INTO OUR
AREA FROM NE TO SW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HAVING THIS ANALYSIS
IN MIND, GOING INTO THE LATEST 01Z NBM AND COMPARING HRRR (AND
ASSOCIATED HREF) TRENDS, POP'S ARE LOOKING REASONABLE ON TUESDAY
WITH BEST COVERAGE (DENOTED BY BEST CONFIDENCE, AS WELL) FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-55. COMPARING THE 01Z NBM TO THE 13Z NBM
(USED FOR THE DAY SHIFT FORECAST) SHOWS A NOTICEABLE INCREASING
TREND WITH BROADER 50% POPS FROM THE NORTHSHORE TO COASTAL MS IN
THE AFTERNOON, UP TO BROAD 60% TOWARDS THE EVENING, AND GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THIS TREND WITH LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.
AS FOR STORM MODE/INTENSITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE NO
NOTICEABLE DRY-AIR LAYER OWING IN NOTICEABLE ENTRAINMENT/DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, IN SUCH A MOIST THERMAL PROFILE AND
PROXIMITY OF THE NEARBY 594DM RIDGE, YIELDS "WARM" H5 TEMPS IN
THE -5 TO -7C RANGE. GIVEN THAT, WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, WILL WATCH FOR A FEW BRIEF STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THAT COULD DELIVER GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN EXCESS OF
30-40MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS AMPLIFY NEAR ANY EXTRA
FORCING (I.E. SEABREEZE/LAKEBREEZE INTERACTIONS). WILL MENTION
THAT WEAK NORTHERLY 0-1KM FLOW WILL ATTEMPT AT OFFSETTING THE
DAILY SEABREEZE/LAKEBREEZE FROM DRIFTING TOO FAR NORTH, LOCKING IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THAT MIGHT BE A LOCATION TO 1) WATCH FOR THE
EARLIEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND 2) WATCH FOR UPDRAFTS THAT
PROPAGATE OVER THESE BOUNDARIES TO BRIEFLY AMPLIFY AND BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG, THEREAFTER, ANY ADDITIONAL GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY INTERACT WITH OTHER STORMS DRIFTING WITH THE MEAN
WIND TOWARDS THE SW THROUGH SUNSET. OVERALL, CAN'T RULE OUT A
HANDFUL AMOUNT OF STRONG STORMS.
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGES
FROM THE 13Z NBM/DAY SHIFT FORECAST. PQL DID COME IN WARMER
ACTUALLY MATCHING WHAT THEY HIT TODAY WITH A HIGH OF 97F, SO HARD
TO ARGUE/ADJUST FROM THAT. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WAS AIMED AT
LOWERING TD'S FOR GENERALLY THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA WHERE POP COVERAGE IS LESS, OWING IN GREATER PBL MIXING
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO A LOWER-END HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (INCLUDING
BTR TO HZR) WHICH REQUIRED SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE, STILL ANTICIPATING EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHSHORE/SOUTHSHORE (SURROUNDING LAKES) AND COASTAL MS.
IT'LL BE HOT, AND IF IT RAINS, WE'LL SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT BUT
NOT THE HUMIDITY MAKING IMPACTS WORTHY OF CONTINUED STRONG
MESSAGING TO THOSE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SIMILAR STORY AS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
MOIST TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, WHICH GUIDANCE HINTS AT LEADING
TO GREATER MARINE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. CURRENT THOUGHTS IS
GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, ANY CIRRUS CANOPY
WILL BLOW OFF OFF THE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TYPICAL
MID/LATE MORNING TURNOVER FROM MARINE TO LAND CONVECTION. HOW MUCH
(AND HOW EARLY) CONVECTION DEVELOPS MAY BE A PLAYER IN HOW HOT WE
GET. FOR NOW, NOT ANTICIPATING MAJOR IMPACTS WITH ATLEAST SOME
HEAT HEADLINES PERSISTING, BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES (LIKELY LATE TOMORROW MORNING) DETERMINE THE NEED GIVEN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE/TRENDS. KLG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
LATE-WEEK, THE MAIN STORY TRANSITIONS INTO GREATER MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE HEAT BACKS DOWN
SOME, AS WE TRANSITION INTO A GENERALIZED WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVELS. SAME DAILY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT SEEING
ANY DISTINCT SEVERE THREATS IN A VERY MOIST, TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT
PERSISTING IN PLACE. THE 01Z NBM CAME IN JUMPING POPS UP SOME FOR
LATE-WEEK, AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THAT TREND FOR NOW.
LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED PVA TO SLIDE SE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND, AS THE RIDGE CENTER AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS MORE TOWARDS THE SW US. THIS COULD SLIDE A FRONT INTO THE
GENERAL AREA AND STALL WITH TIME, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CONFIDENTLY
ILLUSTRATES A LOWERED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND FOR THOSE WITH WEEKEND PLANS AND WILL
MATCH MESSAGING ACCORDINGLY. KLG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING. ANTICIPATING GREATER SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT EARLY AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY, WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR TERMINALS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 TO COASTAL SE LA. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST, LASTING TO
AROUND 00-02Z TUESDAY EVENING. ANY ONE STORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTY,
ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS, LOWER CIGS
AND VIS IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE ANY TSRA ACTIVITY WITH VFR PREVAILING GOING INTO LATE
EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS STEADILY DISSIPATE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO COASTAL SE LA AND INTO THE GULF. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
ANTICIPATING MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR MARINE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE WEST. EXPECTING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TO CAUSE GREATER, MAINLY EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH OFF/ON PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING
GUSTY (POSSIBLY SEVERE) WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY ENHANCED WAVES/SEAS
AND WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CALM WITH LIGHT WAVES/SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 76 95 75 93 / 10 30 40 80
BTR 77 97 78 93 / 0 30 50 80
ASD 76 96 75 93 / 10 50 60 80
MSY 81 97 80 94 / 20 50 60 80
GPT 79 97 77 92 / 20 60 70 80
PQL 77 97 75 92 / 20 50 60 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056-059-064>071-088>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>085.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG
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