948
FXUS64 KLIX 292028
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS VAGUELY CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR REGION
AND IS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NEARLY THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. IT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD
TODAY. THAT PUTS THE SOUTHEASTERN US RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SUCH STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING, MINIMAL DECREASES IN SUBSIDENCE ARE STILL IT TAKES FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP AND THATS WHAT WE'RE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE
BULK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. NO SURPRISE LOOKING AT BFR SOUNDINGS THAT DCAPE IS HIGH
FROM INVERTED V PROFILE AND AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH MORE
ROBUST CELLS. ITS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS TO WHETHER NEW STORMS DEVELOP IN THE 06-14Z TIMEFRAME. THEN, SOME
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD TO
INLAND PARTS OF THE CWA.
THAT UNCERTAINTY CARRIES OVER INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY WAS RE-
ISSUED FOR WED UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
IF STORMS PERSIST WILL INTO THE MORNING HOURS, TEMPS MAY NOT RECOVER
FAST ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDICIES TO REACH ABOVE 107.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRASTICALLY
ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND THUS REDUCE
SUBSIDENCE SUBSTANTIALLY. FORECAST POPS THURS ONWARD IS PRETTY MUCH
WHAT YOU'D EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT'LL STILL BE FAIRLY HOT BUT COVERAGE
WILL MOST LIKELY START TOO EARLY IN THE DAY AND BE TOO WIDESPREAD
FOR THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON EVEN AS CU FIELD BEGINS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD FROM MS.
CEILINGS RANGE FROM JUST ABOVE 3KFT TO SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET. THE
MOST LIKELY APPRECIABLE IMPACT AT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD COME
FROM DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FOR TERMINALS SOUTHEAST OF A KMCB TO KHUM LINE. THEREFORE, THE
TERMINALS IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
TO ACCOUNT FOR STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THAT'LL ALLOW
FOR MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW DRIVE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. SOME STORMS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT'S NOT
UNTIL LATE WEEK BEFORE SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF AND PROMOTES CONSISTENT GRADIENT FLOW.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 75 93 73 93 / 40 70 30 60
BTR 77 94 76 94 / 50 70 40 60
ASD 75 93 75 93 / 60 60 30 70
MSY 80 94 79 94 / 70 80 30 70
GPT 77 93 78 93 / 50 70 30 60
PQL 75 93 76 93 / 60 70 30 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056-059-064>071-088>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>085.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG
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