845
FXUS64 KLIX 301800
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
100 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS REMAINED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING HAS CONVECTIVE TURNOVER HAS YET TO OCCUR
TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AS ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AROUND 2.2 INCHES RESIDE.
ACCORDING TO CAMS, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE TURNOVER ONTO LAND
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS AROUND 3P WHEN THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED IN THE MID-90S. THE HOLDOFF OF CONVECTION
OVER LAND HAS LED TO DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE AREA AS MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED 108 DEGREES BY NOON TODAY AS THE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT LINGERS AROUND HERE. HOWEVER, WHEN WE DO START TO
POP CONVECTION OVER LAND, HIGH PW COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH CAPE OF
3500 MLCAPE AND 5500+ SBCAPE AND 900-1100 J/KG OF DCAPE, WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY.
DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY THREAT TODAY AS THE THE
FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ABOVE 15,500 FEET,
MEANING IT WOULD TAKE A VERY STRONG CORE TO MAKE IT ABNORMALLY
HIGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AT THE SURFACE AFTER MELTING BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 10-11PM TONIGHT AS WE LOSE DAYLIGHT HEATING AND WE
RETURN TO AN UNUSUALLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL EXPAND WESTWARD MORE INTO
OUR AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED IN THE
MID 90S. CAMS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION OVER LAND TOMORROW WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AROUND 3P-4P. SO, SINCE WE'LL BE
ALLOWED TO HEAT UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON, DANGEROUS
HEAT WILL BE ON THE TABLE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW AS THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MID 90S TEMPS COUPLED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 110
DEGREES. THIS MANY DAYS WITH DANGEROUS HEAT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
COMPOUNDING HEAT STRESS. WHEN CONVECTION DOES FIRE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE PARAMETERS WILL LARGELY BE THE SAME AS
TODAY, MAYBE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER DCAPE, SO ISOLATED WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE A CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. ONCE AGAIN, THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH TO HAVE
ANY CONCERNS WITH SEVERE HAIL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
UNCERTAINTY SEEMS TO PICK UP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AS WE
GET INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON WHEN
(AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND AS LATE AS SUNDAY) AND HOW FAR DOWN THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT. JUST SOLELY BASED OFF OF CLIMATOLOGY, IT'S
TOUGH FOR FRONTS TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN HERE IN LATE JULY AND
EARLY AUGUST, SO ITS DOUBTFUL THAT IT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH GUIDANCE HINTING AT IT
THAT IT COULD BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. IF IT WERE TO MAKE IT DOWN
HERE, IT'LL PRIMARILY GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS
AND GIVE US LOWS IN THE LOW 70S AND UPPER 60S. IF NOT, WE'LL JUST
STAY IN THE SAME SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND DAILY SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WE HAVE YET TO TURNOVER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF WATERS. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS WE CONTINUE TO
REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. IN THIS POPUP THUNDERSTORM
REGIME, IT'S TOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND GO SINCE IT'S LARGELY DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES. THUS, ONLY TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SITES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOESN'T
FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 03-04Z AS WE LOSE DAYLIGHT HEATING.
TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME, BUT THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
WINDOW TOMORROW SEEMS TO BE AFTER 18Z, SO THERE ISN'T MUCH MENTION
OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR MSY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY BUILD WEST, ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID-MORNING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY. WITHIN ANY ONE STRONG OR SEVERE STORM, STRONG WIND GUSTS,
WATERSPOUTS AND ENHANCED WAVE/SEA ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY CALM OUTSIDE OF STORM
ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 94 74 94 / 40 60 20 70
BTR 76 95 76 95 / 50 60 20 70
ASD 75 93 76 94 / 40 70 20 70
MSY 79 95 80 95 / 40 70 20 80
GPT 78 93 78 94 / 40 60 30 70
PQL 77 93 77 93 / 40 60 30 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
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