873
FXUS64 KLIX 310517
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE WEDNESDAY CONVECTION
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
TAKING THE CONVECTION WITH IT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
CONVECTION MOVED WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF TERREBONNE AND LAFOURCHE
PARISHES, BRINGING AT LEAST TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S AT MIDNIGHT CDT. THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.2 INCHES.
AS THE EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO TEXAS, UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
UNLIKE THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T REALLY
SHOW MOISTURE LEVELS FALLING MUCH, GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 2
INCHES. WHILE CAMS AREN'T HITTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY HARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEY ALSO UNDERPLAYED
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WON'T BACK OFF THE FORECAST POP12S
IN THE GRIDS WHICH ARE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
ANY PROLONGED HEAT THREAT, AS WILL TIMING OF CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.
MOST HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN HEAT ADVISORY RANGE (108 TO
112), BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO EXCEED THOSE LEVELS IF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON (BEYOND 3 PM
CDT). A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH AT PRESENT TO JUSTIFY AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
QUITE YET.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
MAIN QUESTION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW
FAR INTO (OR THROUGH) THE AREA A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES, AND WHEN.
THE RIDGING THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY
AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, PUTTING
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST IN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH
SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ACTUALLY NEAR
THE COAST BY ABOUT SUNDAY. NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT WOULD RESEMBLE THE MEX POPS
FROM THE 30/12Z GFS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND POPS FROM THAT
RUN DON'T QUITE FIT THE PATTERN. WE'LL KEEP THE NBM NUMBERS FOR NOW,
WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILING AT
KNEW, AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE LOW
CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES ARE AT LEAST A MINOR THREAT AROUND SUNRISE,
DON'T EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO BE PREVALENT. MAIN THREAT TO
AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL AGAIN BE CONVECTION, PRIMARILY IN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW. DIRECT IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS, IFR
VISIBILITIES, AND PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY BUILD WEST, ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID-MORNING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. WITHIN ANY ONE STRONG OR SEVERE STORM, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, WATERSPOUTS AND ENHANCED WAVE/SEA ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY CALM OUTSIDE OF STORM
ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 95 74 94 73 / 60 30 70 30
BTR 96 76 95 76 / 60 30 70 30
ASD 94 76 94 75 / 60 30 70 30
MSY 96 80 95 79 / 60 20 80 30
GPT 93 78 94 76 / 60 30 70 40
PQL 94 77 93 75 / 60 30 70 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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