358  
FXUS64 KLIX 010451  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
 
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH TROUGHING FROM WESTERN  
LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR MEMPHIS TO FORT WORTH TO MIDLAND  
TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WAS MUCH LESS  
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED, LIKELY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT  
PUSHED INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, ISOLATED  
STORMS CONTINUED WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN  
AROUND INTERSTATE 10. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE  
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN NEW ORLEANS  
AND BILOXI.  
 
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM  
WILL BE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE  
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE  
00Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION RANGED FROM 1.95 TO 2.15 INCHES.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T REALLY SHOW THOSE NUMBERS CHANGING A GREAT  
DEAL AS WE GO THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY. MAYBE A SLIGHT NUDGE  
UPWARD, BUT NOT GREATLY. UPPER TROUGHING DOESN'T REALLY MOVE A LOT,  
EITHER. PRESSURE FIELDS AND SURFACE WINDS INDICATE THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY MIGHT MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 10 OR SO  
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS  
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE CAMS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP  
REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF THAT DEVELOPMENT. DON'T REALLY SEE  
ANY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTORS TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH  
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 89-92F, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR  
AROUND 18Z OR SO TODAY, AND MAYBE A SHADE LATER ON SATURDAY. OF  
COURSE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, ANY STORM WILL  
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES AREN'T  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH  
PAST THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH HEAT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) IN SOME AREAS, STORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE  
COOLING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF LATER GUIDANCE WERE TO INDICATE  
A DELAY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT TO VERY LATE AFTERNOON, A SHORT NOTICE  
ADVISORY MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY AROUND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR,  
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH  
IT MAY MAKE SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESS BY SUNDAY AND BE MORE  
FULLY OVER THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK, THE AXIS OF  
THE TROUGH MAY BE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SHOULD BRING  
SOME MODERATION IN HEAT LEVELS, BUT IT ALSO MEANS THERE'S NO  
GUARANTEES THAT WE WILL HAVE ANY DAYS THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED  
COMPLETELY DRY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LOOK TO BE A PRETTY  
GOOD BET EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12  
CORRIDORS SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S  
EACH DAY, WITHOUT HEAT ADVISORIES BEING NECESSARY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBTR,  
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A SHRA WERE OCCURRING, AND SHOULD REMAIN  
THAT WAY MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
SHOULD HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT IN THE TERMINAL AREAS SUFFICIENTLY  
FOR THE MOST PART TO LOWER THE THREAT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AS  
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREN'T EXPECTED TO REACH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES.  
HOWEVER, THE SHOWER IN THE AREA OF KBTR MAY CHANGE THAT BY  
SUNRISE.  
 
PLANNING ON USING TEMPO AT MOST TERMINALS FOR AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT, WHERE PROB30 WILL BE USED  
AS THEY ARE FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. THE STRONGEST  
STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND WIND  
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE  
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT MAY LINGER IT TO 02Z OR SO.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS  
THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING FRIDAY, WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL  
DIURNAL EBB AND FLOW. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,  
AND COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER  
WAVES/SEAS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 73 91 73 89 / 30 80 40 80  
BTR 75 93 75 91 / 20 80 40 80  
ASD 75 93 75 91 / 20 60 30 90  
MSY 79 94 79 92 / 10 60 30 90  
GPT 78 93 76 91 / 10 50 30 90  
PQL 76 94 75 92 / 10 40 30 90  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...RW  
MARINE...DM/RW  
 
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