480
FXUS64 KLIX 012327
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DAILY DIURNAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE
EVENING. PW IN THE AREA REMAIN WELL ABOVE 2 IN SO WHILE THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS NOT GOING TO BE WIDESPREAD, ANY INDIVIDUAL
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS AND COULD BRING ISOLATED
FLOODING. STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL.
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THE VERY
BORDERLINE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, WITH DECENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THAT SHOULD HELP COOL DOWN AREAS A BIT WHERE
THEY END UP DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SPOTS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO HIT
CRITERIA (108+), BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS EXCEEDING
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE SW PART OF THE CONUS WHILE WE
HAVE TROUGHING OVER ON THE SE HALF. THIS SHOULD HELP EVER SO
SLIGHTLY REDUCE OUR TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90 INSTEAD OF THE MID 90S
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DEPRESSED DEW
POINTS SHOULD KEEP US OUT OF HEAT ADVISORIES STARTING SUNDAY THOUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. WE'LL STILL SEE THE DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY TYPE POP UP STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO HELP WITH
THE HEAT AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO, AND WILL NEED TO CARRY TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KMCB, KHDC
AND KBTR FOR A COUPLE HOURS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT STORMS IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NEW UPDRAFTS IN THE TERMINAL AREAS. BEYOND 02Z,
EXPECT A DISSIPATING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS, MAY NEED TO ADD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AT THOSE TERMINALS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY WHERE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE A CONCERN.
EXPECT MOST TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND CONSIDERING POPS IN
GUIDANCE, WILL USE TEMPO AT ALL TERMINALS FOR TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BENIGN OUTSIDE OF ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IMPACTS FOR AREAS HIT BY
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCLUDE LOCALLY HIGH WAVES/SEAS,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 89 71 90 / 40 80 30 40
BTR 75 92 74 92 / 40 80 30 40
ASD 74 90 72 91 / 30 80 50 60
MSY 78 92 78 92 / 30 80 50 70
GPT 77 91 74 91 / 30 80 70 70
PQL 75 91 74 90 / 30 80 70 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...BL
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