566  
FXUS64 KLIX 020503  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1203 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH TROUGHING JUST  
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WAS SOMEWHAT DELAYED IN  
DEVELOPING, BUT EVENTUALLY HAD SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE OVER ABOUT  
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. BY LATE EVENING, ONLY ISOLATED  
CONVECTION REMAINED. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MADE IT INTO THE  
LOWER 90S FRIDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW  
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO  
MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.  
 
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST EDGE  
OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER  
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AT THAT POINT. THAT MAY PROVIDE A BIT  
MORE OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA OVER  
SOUTH ALABAMA, OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. FORECAST WIND FIELDS WOULD  
ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AT PRESENT TO  
POSSIBLY MAKE IT JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES THAT WERE AROUND 2.2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY  
MAINTAIN THOSE LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COULD FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 1.8 INCHES NEAR  
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD  
LIKELY MEAN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS AREA-WIDE TODAY AS  
AREAS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F, THEN DROPPING  
OFF TO ISOLATED COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MCCOMB AND BATON  
ROUGE AREAS.  
 
NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES  
FROM WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THE UPCOMING  
AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPOT WOULD POTENTIALLY BE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF  
A MCCOMB TO BATON ROUGE LINE ON SUNDAY WHERE THE DRIER AIR MAY BE  
RESIDING. AT THIS POINT, IF ANY AREAS REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA  
EITHER DAY, IT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY BRIEFLY, WITH COOLING  
FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS PRODUCING RELIEF, SO NO ADVISORIES ARE  
PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL  
IS, OF COURSE, POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES AREN'T EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
AS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD,  
REINFORCING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, IT WILL PULL THE TROUGH AXIS A  
BIT WESTWARD, MORE FULLY OVER LOUISIANA AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. IT WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
ASIDE FROM PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA ON MONDAY, NOT  
GOING TO BE ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE FORECAST ON ANY DAY OF THE FORECAST. THE GREATEST THREAT  
BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY. OF  
COURSE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE 2  
INCHES, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WON'T BE ABLE TO BE RULED OUT, BUT  
WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AT  
THIS TIME. IF THERE WAS GOING TO BE A CHANGE, A NUDGE UPWARD PERHAPS  
ON MONDAY, BUT IT'S USUALLY COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE TO MAKE A ONE TO TWO  
DEGREE ADJUSTMENT. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOS GUIDANCE BEING  
ON TUESDAY, THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NBM GUIDANCE ON  
THAT DAY ALSO MAKES SENSE, BUT NOT SURE I WOULD BE COMFORTABLE  
CARRYING THE MID 80S THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING  
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY. ANY DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN  
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE MORE OF A FUNCTION OF RAIN-  
COOLED AIR FROM THUNDERSTORMS, SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER 03Z, WITH ONLY  
ISOLATED SHRA REMAINING. ANY THREAT OF TSRA OVER LAND FOR THE REST  
OF THE NIGHT IS TOO SMALL TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS  
AND/OR FOG MAY BE A BIT MORE OF A THREAT AT KMCB, WHERE THEY HAD  
ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN AROUND SUNSET. THAT WOULD TEND TO  
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERSION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG A BIT  
MORE THAN IF IT HAD OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY OF THOSE  
LOWER CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY BY  
ABOUT 14Z. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE  
MORNING. WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WHERE TIMING AND AREAL  
COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE A CONCERN. EXPECT MOST DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND CONSIDERING POPS IN GUIDANCE, WILL USE  
TEMPO AT ALL TERMINALS FOR TSRA. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SHRA BEYOND  
00Z SUNDAY, BUT WOULD ASSUME THAT ONE OR MORE TERMINALS WILL END UP  
WITH TSRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THAT POINT. JUST NOT CONFIDENT  
IN WHICH ONE.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS  
THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY  
REMAIN ON THE SCATTERED SIDE WITH DIURNAL MAXIMA FROM LATE NIGHT  
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS. A FEW STRONG STORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY/NIGHT, AND COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS,  
WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES/SEAS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 91 72 90 70 / 70 30 30 10  
BTR 93 75 92 73 / 70 30 30 10  
ASD 92 72 91 72 / 80 40 60 30  
MSY 93 78 93 78 / 70 40 60 30  
GPT 92 75 91 75 / 80 50 70 40  
PQL 91 73 90 73 / 80 60 70 50  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...RW  
MARINE...RW  
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