231  
FXUS64 KLIX 021950  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT RESIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. ALONG THE BOUNDARY A VERY WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE LOW  
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ALOFT, A  
WEAK H5 IMPULSE IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ALL THAT IN  
MIND, MODELS HAVE VERIFIED QPF/POP FORECASTS WELL THUS FAR TODAY.  
CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER IS STARTING TO BREAK A BIT NORTH OF  
I10/12, BUT ON VIS SAT, NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU TOWERS  
GOING UP OUTSIDE OF THE MS GULF COAST AND THE CENLA REGION. WE  
DID TRIM HIGHS TODAY A BIT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDINESS FROM  
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY QUESTION IN TERMS OF THE NEAR TERM IS WHAT  
WILL THE CONVECTION OVER CENLA DO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND  
DOES IT MAKE IT INTO SW MS AND PERHAPS INTO THE BATON ROUGE AREA.  
CAMS AREN'T TOO BULLISH ON THIS IDEA LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF  
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS ARE FAVORING  
ACTIVITY REACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
 
GOING INTO TONIGHT ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNSET OR REFOCUS OFFSHORE. WITH THE H5 WEAKNESS SITTING OVER US  
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/SURFACE LOW, WOULD EXPECT  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS, BUT GIVEN THE MODELS HANDLING OF POPS TODAY  
WILL LEARN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY DRIER SOLUTION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER  
POPS ON SUNDAY. (FRYE)  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO START THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH  
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE A REASONABLE SOURCE FOR AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE  
DIURNAL CYCLE CONVECTION. THE OVERALL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH  
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORKWEEK WITH THE REGION STUCK  
BETWEEN A VERY STRONG 600 DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND  
A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH CONTINUED H5 TROUGHING  
OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE WITH  
PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON RELIEF IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
(FRYE)  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE CYCLE. MVFR OR IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DO  
DEVELOP. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY  
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
(FRYE)  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS AS  
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND ANY CONVECTION MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER. A  
BROAD SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS MAY ASSIST IN  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY EACH NIGHT. (FRYE)  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 72 90 71 91 / 20 20 10 30  
BTR 74 92 73 93 / 20 30 10 30  
ASD 73 91 72 90 / 40 50 30 50  
MSY 79 92 79 92 / 30 60 30 60  
GPT 74 91 75 89 / 50 60 40 70  
PQL 73 91 73 88 / 50 70 50 80  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RDF  
LONG TERM....RDF  
AVIATION...RDF  
MARINE...RDF  
 
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