037
FXUS64 KLIX 022346
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT RESIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG THE BOUNDARY A VERY WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ALOFT, A
WEAK H5 IMPULSE IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ALL THAT IN
MIND, MODELS HAVE VERIFIED QPF/POP FORECASTS WELL THUS FAR TODAY.
CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER IS STARTING TO BREAK A BIT NORTH OF
I10/12, BUT ON VIS SAT, NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU TOWERS
GOING UP OUTSIDE OF THE MS GULF COAST AND THE CENLA REGION. WE
DID TRIM HIGHS TODAY A BIT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY QUESTION IN TERMS OF THE NEAR TERM IS WHAT
WILL THE CONVECTION OVER CENLA DO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
DOES IT MAKE IT INTO SW MS AND PERHAPS INTO THE BATON ROUGE AREA.
CAMS AREN'T TOO BULLISH ON THIS IDEA LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS ARE FAVORING
ACTIVITY REACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
GOING INTO TONIGHT ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET OR REFOCUS OFFSHORE. WITH THE H5 WEAKNESS SITTING OVER US
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/SURFACE LOW, WOULD EXPECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS, BUT GIVEN THE MODELS HANDLING OF POPS TODAY
WILL LEARN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY DRIER SOLUTION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS ON SUNDAY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A REASONABLE SOURCE FOR AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE CONVECTION. THE OVERALL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORKWEEK WITH THE REGION STUCK
BETWEEN A VERY STRONG 600 DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND
A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH CONTINUED H5 TROUGHING
OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON RELIEF IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
(FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
CONVECTION TOOK A LITTLE LONGER TO PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THAN
EXPECTED TODAY, BUT DID FINALLY GET GOING AROUND 21Z. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA NEAR A KHBG-KHDC-KBTR LINE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SHOULD IMPACT KASD, KNEW, KMSY AND KHUM BY ABOUT 02Z OR SO, AND
KGPT A LITTLE BEYOND THAT POINT, IF THEY DON'T DISSIPATE FIRST.
OUTFLOW DID PRODUCE A 35 KNOT GUST AT KBTR, BUT AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT, THAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AN ISOLATED EVENT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AS DIRECT IMPACTS IF STORMS
HOLD TOGETHER. MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE VFR
CONDITIONS. ON SUNDAY, AREAL COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN TODAY, AND DID NOT CARRY MENTION AT ALL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT KMCB AND KBTR. EVEN THERE, THREAT ISN'T ZERO.
ELSEWHERE, USED ABOUT A 4 HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPO/PROB30 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS AS
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND ANY CONVECTION MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER. A
BROAD SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS MAY ASSIST IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY EACH NIGHT. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 90 71 91 / 20 20 10 30
BTR 74 92 73 93 / 20 30 10 30
ASD 73 91 72 90 / 40 50 30 50
MSY 79 92 79 92 / 30 60 30 60
GPT 74 91 75 89 / 50 60 40 70
PQL 73 91 73 88 / 50 70 50 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
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