651  
FXUS64 KLIX 031142  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
642 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A TRAILING  
SHORTWAVE FROM MISSOURI TO THE ARKLATEX, AND ANOTHER OVER COLORADO.  
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKED TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI  
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION  
PRETTY CONSISTENTLY HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.2 INCHES.  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA GOT OFF TO A PRETTY LATE START, AROUND  
4 OR 5 PM CDT, AND HAS ALREADY MOSTLY DISSIPATED OTHER THAN A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS.  
 
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME  
HOURS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRYING  
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO 1.7 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
THAT IS LIKELY TO KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MCCOMB AND  
BATON ROUGE AREAS RATHER ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON, IF ANY  
OCCURS AT ALL. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, INSTANTANEOUS AREAL  
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE SCATTERED SIDE, WITH POP12  
VALUES NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 50-60, AND THAT MAY BE OVERSTATING  
THINGS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 90S.  
 
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF MUCH OF THE AREA ON  
MONDAY, THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THE COLORADO SHORTWAVE ARRIVES  
IN TIME TO PROVIDE A REPEAT OF THE AREAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN. NBM  
POPS LOOK TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND  
HAVEN'T HAD A GREAT TRACK RECORD THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, NOT OUT  
OF LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, AND NOT GOING TO GAIN MUCH IF A 5-  
10 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE LOWER 90S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO BECOME ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO  
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  
LATEST RUN OF GUIDANCE HOLDS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO 2.2  
INCHES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES TUESDAY, SO THERE'S AT  
LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THERE, BUT FEEL THE LARGER  
THREAT IS EAST OF OUR CWA. BEYOND TUESDAY, FORECAST PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES LOWER THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT,  
BUT DON'T SEE ENOUGH DRY AIR FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO BACK OFF OF AT  
LEAST SCATTERED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. NO INDICATIONS OF  
SIGNIFICANT COOLOFF ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS OUT THERE BUT MOST TERMINALS ARE STILL  
IN VFR. BTR IS THE ONE LOCATION THAT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS  
SEEN IMPACTS CURRENTLY SHOWING LIFR CIGS AROUND 400'. THESE SHOULD  
QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SUN RISES AND IT SHOULD JOIN THE REST OF  
THE TERMINALS BACK IN VFR STATUS BEFORE 1430Z. THE NEXT POSSIBLE  
ISSUE WILL BE CONVECTION LATER TODAY. WITH A DECENT BIT OF DRY AIR  
HAVING MOVED IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST  
STORMS MAY BE FAIRLY CONTAINED CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. WITH BTR  
AND MCB POSSIBLY REMAINING FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY. /CAB/  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS  
THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY  
REMAIN ON THE SCATTERED SIDE WITH DIURNAL MAXIMA FROM LATE NIGHT  
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS. A FEW STRONG STORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY/NIGHT, AND COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS,  
WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES/SEAS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 89 71 91 71 / 20 10 30 20  
BTR 91 73 93 74 / 30 10 30 20  
ASD 91 73 91 72 / 50 30 60 50  
MSY 92 78 92 77 / 50 30 60 40  
GPT 92 75 89 74 / 60 40 70 60  
PQL 91 73 89 73 / 70 50 80 70  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...CAB  
MARINE...RW  
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