855  
FXUS64 KLIX 031728 AAB  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A TRAILING  
SHORTWAVE FROM MISSOURI TO THE ARKLATEX, AND ANOTHER OVER COLORADO.  
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKED TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI  
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION  
PRETTY CONSISTENTLY HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.2 INCHES.  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA GOT OFF TO A PRETTY LATE START, AROUND  
4 OR 5 PM CDT, AND HAS ALREADY MOSTLY DISSIPATED OTHER THAN A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS.  
 
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME  
HOURS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRYING  
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO 1.7 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
THAT IS LIKELY TO KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MCCOMB AND  
BATON ROUGE AREAS RATHER ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON, IF ANY  
OCCURS AT ALL. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, INSTANTANEOUS AREAL  
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE SCATTERED SIDE, WITH POP12  
VALUES NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 50-60, AND THAT MAY BE OVERSTATING  
THINGS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 90S.  
 
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF MUCH OF THE AREA ON  
MONDAY, THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THE COLORADO SHORTWAVE ARRIVES  
IN TIME TO PROVIDE A REPEAT OF THE AREAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN. NBM  
POPS LOOK TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND  
HAVEN'T HAD A GREAT TRACK RECORD THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, NOT OUT  
OF LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, AND NOT GOING TO GAIN MUCH IF A 5-  
10 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE LOWER 90S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO BECOME ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO  
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  
LATEST RUN OF GUIDANCE HOLDS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO 2.2  
INCHES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES TUESDAY, SO THERE'S AT  
LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THERE, BUT FEEL THE LARGER  
THREAT IS EAST OF OUR CWA. BEYOND TUESDAY, FORECAST PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES LOWER THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT,  
BUT DON'T SEE ENOUGH DRY AIR FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO BACK OFF OF AT  
LEAST SCATTERED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. NO INDICATIONS OF  
SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION (AND PERHAPS SOME LIMITED VIS FOR MCB MONDAY  
MORNING) VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS. AS  
FOR CONVECTION, BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR NEW, MSY, HUM,  
GPT...GENERALLY TERMINALS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. WINDS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH  
THE CYCLE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS  
THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY  
REMAIN ON THE SCATTERED SIDE WITH DIURNAL MAXIMA FROM LATE NIGHT  
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS. A FEW STRONG STORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY/NIGHT, AND COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS,  
WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES/SEAS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 69 91 71 91 / 0 20 20 50  
BTR 73 93 74 93 / 10 20 20 50  
ASD 72 92 72 91 / 20 50 40 80  
MSY 78 92 78 92 / 20 40 40 80  
GPT 75 91 74 91 / 40 60 60 80  
PQL 73 90 72 89 / 40 70 70 90  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...RDF  
MARINE...RW  
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