160  
FXUS64 KLIX 032013  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
313 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH STILL RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF  
JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. A VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW ALSO  
RESIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH HELPED SPARK SOME MARINE  
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED AS THE  
DIURNAL CYCLE SWINGS BACK TO LANDBASED ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. BEING  
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE OR BEHIND THE  
TROUGH/FRONT, CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY AND SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO BE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MS GULF COAST AND COASTAL  
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DRY AIR WILL SIMPLY LIMIT VERTICAL  
GROWTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND GENERALLY LOCATIONS  
WEST OF I55. THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM STILL CANNOT BE FULLY  
RULED OUT.  
 
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AN H5  
WEAKNESS WILL SHARPEN AS AN IMPULSE MOVES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SURFACE LIFT  
JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN MOSTLY EAST  
OF I55. AGAIN, SIMILAR TO TODAY, BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF  
THE SURFACE FEATURES AS WELL AS POSITIONED IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW,  
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST. WITH THE WEAKER UPPER  
HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL  
WITHIN THE "NORMAL" RANGE FOR EARLY AUGUST...GENERALLY LOWER 90S.  
HOWEVER, IF CLOUDINESS HANGS AROUND THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE  
BULLISH SIDE, WHICH MAY BE GREAT NEWS FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A  
SLIGHT BREAK IN THE RECENT EXTREME HEAT. (FRYE)  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
GOING INTO MIDWEEK THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER AN H5 WEAKNESS  
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK LOW OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN  
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL BASICALLY ALLOW A  
CONTINUATION OF THE SHORT TERM PATTERN INTO THE LONG TERM.  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ENHANCED BY  
THE UPPER WEAKNESS AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF I55. HOWEVER, PROPERLY TIMED  
IMPULSE WITHIN THE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTER FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP  
GENERATE MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS THE DRIER LOCATIONS  
WEST OF I55. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL REALLY BE A PLAYER IN TERMS  
OF THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, IT'S A  
SAFE BET TO GO WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH AGAIN KEEPS  
TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO. (FRYE)  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION (AND PERHAPS SOME LIMITED VIS FOR MCB MONDAY  
MORNING) VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS. AS  
FOR CONVECTION, BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR NEW, MSY, HUM,  
GPT...GENERALLY TERMINALS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. WINDS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH  
THE CYCLE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. (FRYE)  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025  
 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY  
FOCUS AS WINDS AND SEAS AROUND ANY CONVECTION MAY BE LOCALLY  
HIGHER. IN THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW, WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY ANY UPDRAFT THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED INTO A SURFACE  
BOUNDARY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS MAY ASSIST  
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY EACH NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
UPCOMING WEEK. (FRYE)  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 69 91 71 91 / 0 20 20 50  
BTR 73 93 74 93 / 10 20 20 50  
ASD 72 92 72 91 / 20 50 40 80  
MSY 78 92 78 92 / 20 40 40 80  
GPT 75 91 74 91 / 40 60 60 80  
PQL 73 90 72 89 / 40 70 70 90  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RDF  
LONG TERM....RDF  
AVIATION...RDF  
MARINE...RDF  
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