616
FXUS64 KLIX 032334
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH STILL RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. A VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW ALSO
RESIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH HELPED SPARK SOME MARINE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED AS THE
DIURNAL CYCLE SWINGS BACK TO LANDBASED ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. BEING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE OR BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONT, CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MS GULF COAST AND COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DRY AIR WILL SIMPLY LIMIT VERTICAL
GROWTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND GENERALLY LOCATIONS
WEST OF I55. THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM STILL CANNOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT.
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AN H5
WEAKNESS WILL SHARPEN AS AN IMPULSE MOVES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SURFACE LIFT
JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN MOSTLY EAST
OF I55. AGAIN, SIMILAR TO TODAY, BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE FEATURES AS WELL AS POSITIONED IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW,
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST. WITH THE WEAKER UPPER
HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
WITHIN THE "NORMAL" RANGE FOR EARLY AUGUST...GENERALLY LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, IF CLOUDINESS HANGS AROUND THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE
BULLISH SIDE, WHICH MAY BE GREAT NEWS FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A
SLIGHT BREAK IN THE RECENT EXTREME HEAT. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
GOING INTO MIDWEEK THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER AN H5 WEAKNESS
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK LOW OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL BASICALLY ALLOW A
CONTINUATION OF THE SHORT TERM PATTERN INTO THE LONG TERM.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER WEAKNESS AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF I55. HOWEVER, PROPERLY TIMED
IMPULSE WITHIN THE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTER FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS THE DRIER LOCATIONS
WEST OF I55. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL REALLY BE A PLAYER IN TERMS
OF THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, IT'S A
SAFE BET TO GO WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH AGAIN KEEPS
TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
TERMINALS WERE VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, AND SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY MOST OR ALL NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF A
KMOB TO KHUM LINE. AT PRESENT THE ONLY TERMINAL NEEDING ANY
MENTION OF TSRA THIS EVENING IS KHUM, WHERE VCTS IS BEING USED,
AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THAT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ISN'T GOING TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SO THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF TSRA AT MOST TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMCB AND KBTR. FOR THE REMAINING
TERMINALS WILL USE PROB30, EXCEPT FOR KGPT, WHERE TEMPO WILL BE
USED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS AS WINDS AND SEAS AROUND ANY CONVECTION MAY BE LOCALLY
HIGHER. IN THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW, WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ANY UPDRAFT THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED INTO A SURFACE
BOUNDARY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS MAY ASSIST
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY EACH NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 69 91 71 91 / 0 20 20 50
BTR 73 93 74 93 / 10 20 20 50
ASD 72 92 72 91 / 20 50 40 80
MSY 78 92 78 92 / 20 40 40 80
GPT 75 91 74 91 / 40 60 60 80
PQL 73 90 72 89 / 40 70 70 90
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
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