244
FXUS64 KLIX 172339
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY
RETREATING UPPER HIGH. WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE HIGH STILL
RESULTING IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DELAYED ONSET IN CONVECTION UNTIL THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO
THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE DELAYED CONVECTIVE ONSET AND LOWER COVERAGE WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, OR
ROUGHLY 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST IN THE MID 70S, WHICH CURRENTLY
KEEPS MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH IS JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS REACH CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY LATER IN THE WEEK A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE AS
HURRICANE ERIN RECURVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. BY THIS POINT, THE UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE
RETREATED FARTHER WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA, PLACING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER PATTERN. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO FORCE A
WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL WEAKNESS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO END THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
COULD BE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT STALLS.
IF THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. HOWEVER,
IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA, TO NEAR THE COAST,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE MORE IN THE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
CATEGORY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES DEVELOP ALONG WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 90S AND INSTABILITY PERSISTS. THE LARGEST CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY NEAR HDC AND ASD WHERE PROB30 WORDING
THROUGH AROUND 4Z IS IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IF A STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTS ONE OF THESE TERMINALS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CELLS NEAR GPT, NEW, AND MSY THAT
COULD FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SHORT TERM
PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED TO REFLECT THIS RISK, BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT IS LOWER THAN FOR ASD AND HDC. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES OUT
LATER THIS EVENING, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID-DAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD FORM GENERALLY AFTER 18Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS CONVECTIVE
THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS REFLECTED BY ADDITIONAL PROB30
WORDING AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. PG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, CONFIDENCE
IN ANY STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING A SPECIFIC TERMINAL ARE LOW AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. ANY IMPACTS WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED BY SHORT TERM
AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WILL RANGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OUTSIDE OF ANY LAND/SEA/LAKE BREEZE
ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND
TRANSITIONING FARTHER INLAND BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES/SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 95 73 96 / 20 30 10 20
BTR 75 97 75 97 / 20 40 10 30
ASD 73 94 73 95 / 30 30 10 30
MSY 80 96 79 96 / 30 30 10 30
GPT 75 94 75 94 / 20 20 10 20
PQL 73 94 73 94 / 10 30 10 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...DM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page