258
FXUS64 KLIX 180415
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH. A POOL OF DRIER AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS FEEDING ON THE BACK OF A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A BIT LOWER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR IS EASILY REFLECTED BY
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A DELAYED CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME FRAME
WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT FIRING UP UNTIL THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO QUICKLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PUSH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OCCUR. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 105 AND 108 OR JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY, BUT ANYONE WORKING
OUTSIDE SHOULD TAKE THEIR PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS INCLUDING
DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKING BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
INDOORS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORTUNATELY,
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
DEVELOP. STORM MOTION WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW AT 10 MPH OR LESS,
SO HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING
IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. OVERALL, THOUGH, THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN TERMS
OF INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST AS A BROAD TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HURRICANE ERIN OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL ASSIST IN DRIVING THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SLIP INTO THE AREA, AND COULD STALL OVER THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH AND
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. PWATS WILL SURGE
TO BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE, OR BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.1
INCHES, OVER THIS PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE WILL TAP INTO THE BROAD
AREA OF INCREASED FORCING ALOFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO PRODUCE
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO START EARLIER IN THE MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE END RESULT WILL BE A
COOLER AND RAINIER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN SLOW AND RAINFALL
PROCESSES WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT, SO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE A GROWING CONCERN BY
THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION OVER THIS PERIOD, SO THAT WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD FORM GENERALLY AFTER 18Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS CONVECTIVE
THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS REFLECTED BY ADDITIONAL PROB30
WORDING AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS LIGHT
WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF AROUND 1 FOOT PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOWER
THAN AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR AND MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST, BUT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAKE
HOLD TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM, THERE ARE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARITIME ACTIVITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 74 96 73 96 / 20 30 20 30
BTR 75 96 75 95 / 20 50 30 40
ASD 75 95 74 95 / 20 30 10 30
MSY 80 94 79 93 / 20 40 20 40
GPT 77 92 76 92 / 20 20 10 30
PQL 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 10 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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