802
FXUS64 KLIX 191839
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP
PWATS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL DO THINGS, SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO
ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS. IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO START LATER IN
THE DAY WITH THE MOST CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, SOME GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT THE SEVERE WIND
GUST THREAT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LIMITED. WITH CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB TO BETWEEN 108 AND
112 DEGREES TOMORROW. GIVEN THIS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 108 AS TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATED
BY THE SEABREEZE. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, BUT A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 110 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A COOLER AND WETTER
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
HURRICANE ERIN WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WILL
ASSIST IN DRIVING THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSER TO
THE REGION. THE WIND FIELD WILL ALSO START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED BACK INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL
QUICKLY RESPOND BY CLIMBING TO AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, AMPLE INSTABILITY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S, AND INCREASED FORCING
FROM THE POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE WARM AT
AROUND 105 DEGREES, BUT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AS HURRICANE ERIN QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG THE GULF COAST. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE EACH DAY, SO FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER LAND BY LATE
MORNING. THE STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE REFLECTED BY POP
FORECAST IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
HELP TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY STAYING CLOSER
TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 90S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER AIR
TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
MID TO LATE AUGUST.
MONDAY IS AN INTERESTING DAY AS THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS BY TO THE
NORTH, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO PULL THE DYING FRONT
OVER THE REGION OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF INDICATE THIS OCCURRING, AND CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE, FOR A DAY SEVEN FORECAST, OF THIS PATTERN
OCCURRING. GIVEN THIS, HAVE OPTED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SUBSTANTIALLY
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AND ALSO REDUCE POP
VALUES TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT AS PWATS PLUNGE TO BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
50TH PERCENTILES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OF COURSE, COLD AIR DOES
NOT REALLY ACCOMPANY THESE SUMMER FRONTS, SO TEMPERATURES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY WARM INTO THE MID 90S. FORTUNATELY, THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY EVEN ALLOW
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER MORE INLAND PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IN VFR STATUS BUT AS CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
EXPAND.MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. FIRST TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE MCB AND HDC AND THEN ASD AND BTR. OBVIOUSLY WITH
ANY TSRA THERE WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND CIGS. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
HURRICANE ERIN IN THE ATLANTIC IS HELP A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT SLIDE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GENERALLY
KEEP WINDS ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT WILL ALSO AID IN DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS OCCURING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THURSDAY
STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND NIGHT AS THAT FRONT STALLS RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. WITH STORMS STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS
2 FT OR LOWER WILL OCCUR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 96 73 91 / 10 40 30 70
BTR 74 97 74 93 / 20 30 30 70
ASD 73 96 73 93 / 10 30 10 60
MSY 79 96 78 94 / 10 30 10 60
GPT 75 95 75 92 / 10 30 10 50
PQL 74 96 74 93 / 10 30 10 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-057-058-060-071-076>087.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083-
086.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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