082
FXUS64 KLIX 192327
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
627 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO POP AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE COAST. VERY TYPICAL GIVEN THE
SETUP WITH WEAK EAS-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS CONVECTION TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER TO DEVELOP. HIGHS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TOPPED OUT
AROUND 97 BUT WE WILL SEE IF THAT IS THE CASE AFTER THE CLIMATE
RUNS TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING TILL ALMOST MIDNIGHT. ONCE ALL STORMS FINALLY
DISSIPATE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AND THEN WE GET
READ TO DO IT ALL AGAIN.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY IT COULD BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY HOWEVER WITH LL
FLOW HAVING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL BE
1-2 DEGREES HOTTER TOMORROW. LL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER AS WELL WITH H925 AROUND 27/28C AND H850 TEMPS AROUND
21/22C AND THIS SHOULD EASILY MIX TO A SFC TEMPS OF 35-36C MAYBE
EVEN 37C WHICH IS AROUND 95-98. COMBINE THAT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 110. WITH THAT WE HAVE ISSUED WHAT SHOULD BE THE FINAL HEAT
ADV OF THE WEEK WITH NO HEAT PRODUCTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.
IN THE MID LVLS, THE RIDGE SITTING OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH ERIN AT OR JUST
NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS TYPICAL
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IT TAKES CONVECTION A LONGER TIME TO DEVELOP AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALLOWS THE AREA TO WARM UP
MORE AND COULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE HOWEVER THERE IS A ONE HICCUP,
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
DOES LOWER PWS TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 AND THAT MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO
DRY TO OVERCOME LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE. WHATEVER STORMS CAN GET
GOING TOMORROW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
BIG CHANGE BEGINS NOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND MUCH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY. THEN IF WE ARE LUCKY, AND IT IS A BIG
IF, MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WHICH COULD MEAN ONE OR TWO
COOLER NIGHTS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPING A L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CONUS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY DRIVE OUR
FRONT JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEE SOME DRIER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SO NOT MAKING ANY DEVIATIONS
FROM THE NBM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GET A RENEWED PUSH SOUTH AS HURRICANE
ERIN RIDES NORTH JUST EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FRONT
WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND STALL/MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME AS ERIN LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE WEST CONUS RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE OVER
THE 4 CORNERS THERE WILL BE A TROUGH AXIS DRAPED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF THE BOUNDARY, TROUGH
ALOFT, AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWS NEAR 2") SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AS WELL AND THUS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND STORMS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION FROM
WARMING ABOVE THE LOWER 90S.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THINGS MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. ANOTHER S/W OR TWO
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING L/W TROUGH
OVER AND THIS COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GET THAT FRONT
TO SLIDE JUST A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
TO INFILTRATE FROM THE NORTH. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW SITES TO SEE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. /CAB/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE IMPACTS AT BTR AND HUM TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 20Z, AND THIS IS REFLECTED WITH SOME
PROB30 WORDING AT THESE TERMINALS. OTHEWISE, THE CONVECTIVE RISK
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
PG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IN VFR STATUS BUT AS CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
EXPAND.MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. FIRST TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE MCB AND HDC AND THEN ASD AND BTR. OBVIOUSLY WITH
ANY TSRA THERE WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND CIGS. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
HURRICANE ERIN IN THE ATLANTIC IS HELP A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT SLIDE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GENERALLY
KEEP WINDS ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT WILL ALSO AID IN DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS OCCURING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THURSDAY
STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND NIGHT AS THAT FRONT STALLS RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. WITH STORMS STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS
2 FT OR LOWER WILL OCCUR. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 96 73 91 / 40 30 30 70
BTR 74 97 74 93 / 20 40 40 70
ASD 73 96 73 93 / 20 20 20 60
MSY 79 96 78 94 / 20 20 20 60
GPT 75 95 75 92 / 10 10 20 50
PQL 74 96 74 93 / 10 10 10 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-057-058-060-071-076>087.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083-
086.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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