289
FXUS64 KLIX 210054 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
754 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PWS WILL
BE AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH WILL BE AROUND THE 75-90TH PERCENTILES
FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. GENERALLY, THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUES AS WELL. MSW
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE DRIER
ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
HELPING TO REINFORCE SOME COOLER FEELING TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATER
INITIATION, LATER INTO THE EVENING, DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY. MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM MANAGES TO MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND OR WAVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RUN 2 FEET OR LESS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING
HOURS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEFORE PUSHING INLAND ON THE
SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WATERSPOUTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 92 72 90 / 20 70 40 60
BTR 74 94 74 91 / 20 80 40 60
ASD 74 93 72 91 / 10 60 40 70
MSY 79 95 78 93 / 10 60 30 70
GPT 76 93 74 91 / 10 60 40 70
PQL 74 93 73 91 / 10 50 40 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
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