451
FXUS64 KLIX 210448
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A VERY STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE EAST
COAST TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR A SURFACE FRONT/TROF TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THEN
STALL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING MAX
HEATING. PWS ARE GOING TO BE RIGHT AT 2" AND WITH THE LIKELY
SLOWER STORM MOTION IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MINOR HYDRO CONCERNS
ARISE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE STORMS OVER
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WITH THE INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL
THROUGH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR
MID TO LATE AUGUST. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
GOING INTO SUNDAY THE PATTERN DOESN'T REALLY CHANGE FROM THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN H5 WEAKNESS WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD AND
THE SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND
AGAIN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION. GOING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK EYES POINT
UPSTREAM AS A UPPER IMPULSE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE. A BROAD LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL THEN DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS WEAK CAA
BEHIND A FRONT IT MAY START TO FEEL MORE TOLERABLE GOING INTO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST. UNTIL THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UP
UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GLOBALS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER, AT THIS JUNCTURE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM MANAGES
TO MOVE OVER A TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND STORMS. OTHERWISE, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AND SEAS AT OR LESS THAN 2 FEET. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 95 73 92 72 / 40 20 70 40
BTR 96 74 94 74 / 20 20 80 40
ASD 94 74 93 72 / 30 10 60 40
MSY 95 79 95 78 / 30 10 60 30
GPT 93 76 93 74 / 30 10 60 40
PQL 94 74 93 73 / 30 10 50 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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