540
FXUS64 KLIX 212345 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT
MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. PWS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH WILL BE AROUND
THE 75-90TH PERCENTILES FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY,
THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
PEAK HEATING HOURS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS (40-50MPH) AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IF A STORM SETS UP OR STALLS OVER AN URBAN AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 70S. MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE DRIER ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE SUBSEVERE GUSTY WINDS
(30-50MPH) AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
HELPING TO REINFORCE SOME COOLER FEELING TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATER
INITIATION, LATER INTO THE EVENING, DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT A LITTLE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING A DRIER PATTERN TO START SETTING UP FROM MID-
WEEK ONWARD. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING SIMILAR TO TODAY, WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS
ON VIS/CIGS. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AROUND THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
(FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ONSHORE AT OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE IN AND
AROUND CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 90 71 92 / 30 60 20 40
BTR 73 91 73 92 / 40 70 20 40
ASD 72 90 71 91 / 50 70 40 70
MSY 78 93 77 92 / 40 80 40 70
GPT 74 90 74 89 / 50 70 40 70
PQL 73 90 72 90 / 40 70 50 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
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