420
FXUS64 KLIX 220439
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
AN H5 WEAKNESS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
STILL RESIDES GENERALLY BETWEEN THE I10/20 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE
HASN'T MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN
CLOSE AT LEAST THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO DRY OUT MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON OCCASION WHERE WIDER AND STRONG
UPDRAFTS OCCUR WITH STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE THERE WITH PWATS OVER 2.0
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE MORE EFFICENT RAINFALL
RATES AND SLOW MOVING CELLS RELIANT ON BOUNDARY PROPAGATION,
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SPOTS. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WITH RAINFALL AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S THROUGH SATURDAY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
WITH IT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL LATE INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10. AS WE START THE NEW WORKWEEK RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN THEME HERE IS WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THOSE TEMPERATURES INVERSELY WILL START TO CLIMB AGAIN. INDEED, IT
APPEARS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE SOARING BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. THE GOOD NEWS IS HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE REDUCED, SO
THAT SHOULD PREVENT THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES.
BEYOND THIS GOING INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL START TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL SEND YET
ANOTHER FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCEMENT OF POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT BEHIND THE FRONT
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE ONLY ADVERTISED IN THE
UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S, HOWEVER, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MORE
DELIGHTFUL WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I10 DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. GLOBALS AGREE ON THE
FRONT, BUT TIMING OF PASSAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON VIS/CIGS.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AROUND THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND STORMS. OTHERWISE, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AND SEAS AT OR LESS THAN 2 FEET. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 92 72 91 71 / 60 30 50 20
BTR 94 73 91 73 / 70 40 70 30
ASD 93 72 91 71 / 70 50 70 40
MSY 95 78 92 77 / 60 40 80 40
GPT 93 75 90 74 / 60 50 70 40
PQL 93 73 91 72 / 60 50 70 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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