790
FXUS64 KLIX 222338
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DRIER ON SUNDAY, BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN SATURDAY BEING FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH LOWER POPS
(20-40%). PWS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND OR ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. SO, ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE SUBSEVERE GUSTY WINDS (30-50MPH) AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY URBAN AREAS IF THEY SET UP. MSW
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
HELPING TO REINFORCE SOME COOLER FEELING TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POPS AROUND (20-50%). THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATER INITIATION, LATER INTO THE EVENING,
DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
AREA.
CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT A LITTLE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
PATTERN GIVEN THE OVERALL SETUP, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING A DRIER
PATTERN TO START SETTING UP FROM MID- WEEK ONWARD. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS AT MCB AND HDC
THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. AFTER 09Z, A
WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA COULD SPARK OFF SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT ASD, NEW, MSY, AND HUM. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT PROB30 WORDING IS IN PLACE TO REFLECT THE CONVECTIVE
RISK. MVFR VISIBILITIES AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z. AFTER 18Z, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR FEEDS IN ON THE BACK OF INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN
EFFECT, WHICH WILL INCLUDE DROPS TO MVFR CONDITIONS, FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AT MOST AREA AIRPORTS. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ONSHORE AT OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 70 93 69 94 / 30 10 10 10
BTR 72 93 71 95 / 40 20 10 10
ASD 72 92 71 94 / 20 30 20 20
MSY 77 93 77 95 / 60 30 10 30
GPT 74 91 74 93 / 50 30 20 30
PQL 72 92 72 93 / 30 30 20 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...MSW
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