128
FXUS64 KLIX 090507
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
ANOTHER DRIER, COMFORTABLE MORNING FOR MOST NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR. RIVER DRAINAGES ARE SEEING MORE EFFICIENT COOLING THIS
MORNING WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE ADJUSTED BELOW NBM GUIDANCE
TO THE LOW 60S IN THESE AREAS.
A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FEATURE
INFLUENCING TODAY'S WEATHER. THIS LOW IS ENCOUNTERING HOSTILE
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION WHICH,
FORTUNATELY, IS NOT A CONCERN FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THESE
REASONS, BUT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST BRINGING A LOBE OF MOISTURE
WITH IT. CAMS IDENTIFY ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
SURGE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS (SQUALLS) WEST TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THESE WILL BE BATTLING
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AS THEY PROGRESS WEST. NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT, WITH NBM COMING IN
GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE (50-60% COASTAL) WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL REASONINGS AND SHORT-RANGE
TRENDS. OVERALL, BEST CHANCES FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM WILL
BE ACROSS COASTAL SE LA AND MS, AND ANY ADVANCEMENT
WESTWARD/INLAND COULD STRUGGLE AS DRY AIR EVENTUALLY WINDS OVER
DISSIPATING ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL FOCUS OF AFTERNOON STORMS
WESTWARD WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR
SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON AND TANGIPAHOA PARISHES MOVING WESTWARD. AS
SUCH, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER IN BATON
ROUGE.
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES WITH ADDED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
GOING INTO MID/LATE WEEK, QUIET! HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WIN OVER
THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN US KEEPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS CALM AND
QUIET. FEW EXTRA SHOTS OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP IT COMFORTABLE FOLLOWING AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE COAST AND GREATLY
HINDER POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 10%. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S
BUT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 60'S WILL PREVENT ANY EXCESSIVE
HEAT CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PREVAILING WINDS
PIVOTING FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INTRODUCTION OF PROB30 TSRA LINES BEGINS FROM EAST TO WEST WITH A
BAND OF SQUALL SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE GULF WATERS
ON TUESDAY MORNING. GPT, ASD, MSY, NEW COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS AS EARLY 1200-1500Z. ADDITIONAL TSRA LINES ARE INTRODUCED
FOR FARTHER WEST SITES OF HDC AND HUM BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH MORE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN POP UP STORMS OFF SEA/LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITION OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR BTR AND
MCB IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES OF STORM
COVERAGE, BUT DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL FARTHER INLAND. EXPECT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS/CIGS WITH ANY PASSING SHRA/TSRA, WITH VFR
OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY. LINGERING SH/TS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT-TERM STEMS FROM THE
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SFC LOW SITUATED IN THE SE
GULF. THIS LOW WILL ENCROACH AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO LEADING TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFTS. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RAMP BACK UP THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER
OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUNDS, LAKES, AND GULF. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
GUSTY WINDS/SQUALLS WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS, WHERE WAVES OF 4 TO 7
FEET AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
EAST OF CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS, SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE DOWN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, TURNING DRY WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY WINDS AND LIGHT WAVES/SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET FOR
PROTECTED WATERS, TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 63 87 67 / 0 0 30 10
BTR 86 64 90 70 / 0 0 20 10
ASD 86 65 87 68 / 0 0 50 10
MSY 88 73 88 75 / 0 0 50 10
GPT 88 70 87 70 / 0 10 40 10
PQL 88 67 88 68 / 0 20 40 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ555-557-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ557-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
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