681
FXUS64 KLIX 091727
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST IN A NUTSHELL... IF YOU'RE NOT LUCKY ENOUGH TO
SEE RAIN TODAY, YOU PROBABLY WON'T SEE IT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10
DAYS.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS - ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
EXPECT MORNING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO TO LOWER 70S NORTH
AND IN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH.
BY WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE LEADING TO TODAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY LOW END
POPS FOR COASTAL SE LA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MOST PLACES.
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP A
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 60S
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR WITH LOW TO MID 70S
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT
THE SURFACE. BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA, FURTHER SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND
KEEPING CONDITIONS WARMER THAN NORMAL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, MOSTLY LOOKING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH, HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND
NO SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES TO SPEAK OF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MORE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT ASD,
NEW, MSY, AND HUM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, WHILE
IMPACTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY, PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF ANY
ISOLATED STORMS, WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD, LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, SHUNTING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL FLUCTUATE NEAR HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD
FINALLY EASE LATE IN THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 70 92 68 93 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 68 90 66 91 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 75 91 75 92 / 10 10 0 0
GPT 70 89 68 91 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 68 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ555-557-575-
577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ557-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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