887
FXUS64 KLIX 101903
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
RATHER QUIET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. THERE IS
ISOLATED CONVECTION SLOWLY FIRING OFF ALONG COASTAL SELA. THIS IS
RIGHT UNDER THE WEAK MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OFF THE COAST AL/FAR WESTERN
PENINSULA COAST AND THE TRAILS BACK TO THE WSW ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE LA COAST. THAT LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL SUPPORT AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT RIGHT THERE IS ALLOW THESE STORMS
TO FIRE AS WE HEAT UP BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND WE LOSE THE DAYTIME
HEATING.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST THERE REALLY ISN'T A WHOLE LOT
TO TALK ABOUT AS WE LOOK TO REALLY HEAT UP. IT DOESN'T LOOKS LIKE WE
SHOULD BREAK ANY RECORDS BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW OF THE ISOLATED
COLDER/SHORTER RECORDS THAT GET TESTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL BE DRY (WE WILL BE
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THAT MATTER). THE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TX/MEXICO BORDER WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO NUNAVUT PROVINCE, CANADA AND THE
HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY START TO SLIDE EAST AND STRENGTHEN. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE AROUND 593DM AND CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BY FRIDAY WILL HAVE EXPANDED EAST DOMINATING ALL
OF THE MS VALLEY SHOVING THE EASTERN CONUS L/W TROUGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MID LVL HGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. H925 TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 26 AND 27C ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD MIXED DOWN TO THE
SFC WOULD EQUATE TO AROUND 35-36C WHICH IS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (94-97). NORMAL HIGHS RUN AROUND 87-89 SO WE ARE LOOKING
AT HIGHS AROUND 7 TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 96-98 (102 AT MCB ON 15TH AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO
BE BROKEN) SO A FEW COULD BE TESTED FRIDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY
BE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD DOWN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION IS DEWPOINTS. NBM IS LIKELY TO HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS AS WE SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER EFFICIENTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WITH THAT WE RAN A MIX OF THE NBM10/25% AND THE NBM MEAN WITH
A GREATER DEVIATION TOWARDS THE 10/25% OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 30% RANGE AND MAYBE JUST BELOW 30% FOR A FEW
HOURS. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STOUT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT WITH A DRY AND HOT
FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THAT MUCH OF A
DISAGREEMENT THAT THE DIFFERENCE IS FROM A HOT DRY FORECAST TO ONE
THAT COULD BE TESTING RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE MORE INTERIOR AREAS. BIGGEST NEGATIVE WITH
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S IS THE DECREASING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. JUST OVER THE NEXT WEEK WE WILL LOSE AROUND 10 MINS OF
SUNLIGHT AND WE HAVE ALREADY LOST AROUND 1 HR AND 40 MINS SINCE
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE. SO THE FEW DAYTIME HOURS DOES MAKE IT HARDER
TO GET THOSE RATHER EXTREME HIGHS BUT IF THAT RIDGE DOES BUILD AND
SIT RIGHT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OTHER THING TO MENTION, NONE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES
HAVE EVEN BEEN ABOVE 98 DEGREES AFTER THE 12TH OF SEPTEMBER
OUTSIDE OF MCB'S 102 ON THE 15TH IN 1980, GPT AND MCB BOTH HIT 99
ON THE 12TH. (ONLY DISCUSSING THE CURRENT ASOS SITES AS THE BATON
ROUGE AREA RECORD GOES BACK TO 1892 AND THERE IS A STRETCH FROM
SEP 21-26 WHERE THE DAILY HIGH RANGED FROM 98-102 AND EACH OF
THOSE DAYS IS THE RECORD). /CAB/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE IN VFR STATUS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST. WE ARE SEEING CU DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BUT
THE BASE OF THIS LAYER IS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4K FT ABV THE GROUND
AND THE MOSTLY SCT HOWEVER SOME TERMINALS MAY READ BKN TEMPORARILY
AS THE CLOUDS PASS RIGHT OVER TOP OF THE SENSOR. THE ONE TERMINALS
THAT COULD SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE HUM THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALL OTHERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND 4-
7KTS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST WITH A SLIGHT NORTHERLY OR
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEPENDING ON LOCATION TO THE COAST. THESE WINDS
WILL COLLAPSE AFTER SUNSET AND MOST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY GO CALM
UNLESS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LIKE GPT/MSY/NEW WHICH WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST RIGHT NOW ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW. AFTER TONIGHT CONDITIONS BECOME FAR MORE BENIGN. A WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF WILL BEGIN TO
MIX OUT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN GULF FILLS
WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL RESPOND IN KIND LIKELY REMAINING AROUND 2-3 FT OR
LESS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL GENERALLY BE DICTATED BY DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS SWITCHING FROM A WEAK SEA BREEZE DURING THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS TO A WEAK LAND BREEZE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 70 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 75 92 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 68 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 65 91 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ552-555-
572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ555-572-
575-577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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