056
FXUS64 KLIX 111134
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
634 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 TO
7 DAYS WITH A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60'S EACH DAY FOLLOWING AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL REDUCE ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
CALM AND QUIET TONIGHT LOOKING AT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. WILL BE STAYING THAT WAY GOING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90'S. 00Z HRRR PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS TOMORROW ILLUSTRATE ANOTHER WELL-MIXED PBL WITH A DEEP
ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILE YIELDING LCL'S UP TO AROUND 800MB.
COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH SLITHER OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS LAYER TO
SUPPORT A FEW CLOUD STREETS ALONG WEAK NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
OTHERWISE, 0-1KM ML WINDS REMAIN REDUCED ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER WELL-
DEFINED LAKE/SEE BREEZE BOUNDARY DRIFTING NNW MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
COULD BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE PRESSING AGAINST WEAK NE
FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, DID TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT DEWPOINTS AND KEPT
CONSISTENCY GOING WITH THE FORECAST NUDGING TOWARDS THE 10TH TO
25TH PERCENTILE IN NBM GUIDANCE TO BETTER REFLECT PBL MIXING,
WHICH YIELDS MINIMUM RH'S WELL INTO THE 30'S. WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90'S, RH'S IN THAT RANGE WILL REDUCE ANY CONCERN FOR
EXCESSIVE HEAT. RINSE/REPEAT FOR FRIDAY AS WE STRONGLY MIX OUT YET
AGAIN, WITH THE SAME ADJUSTMENTS FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS,
UNDERNEATH CALM/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
GOING INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
ILLUSTRATES DEEP EAST-COAST AND WESTERN US TROUGHING PATTERN,
WITH A 588DM RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN BOTH, DOMINATING THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL US. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK/BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALL ACROSS THE MS VALLEY/EASTERN US CONTINUING TO
PROMOTE DRY/CALM CONDITIONS. HIGHS REMAIN SLIGHTLY (AROUND 5-8
DEGREES) ABOVE AVERAGE RANGE THRU EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK. NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES COMING IN FOR NEXT WEEK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90'S FOR NOW LIES RIGHT ALONG THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN LONG-RANGE
RUNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF NUMBERS CLIMB HIGHER THAN
THIS, BUT FOR NOW APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE METEOROLOGICAL
SETUP AND NUMERICAL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
WILL ALSO BRIEFLY MENTION PERSISTENT TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH HOW WE ARE MOVING INTO A SPRING TIDE
CYCLE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOUTH AND
EAST-FACING SHORELINES ACROSS COASTAL MS AND SE LA. WILL MONITOR
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW/IF THIS CHANGES.
KLG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS WERE VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A VERY FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO NON-TAF FORECAST
AIRPORTS. WEBCAMS AREN'T REALLY SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG,
EITHER. ANY BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN ANY CASE. VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND WE MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET CLOUDS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LAKE/SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAINLY GULF WATERS TONIGHT, RIGHT
AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUSTAINED 15-18KTS BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT OCCASIONAL UP TO 20KTS. HOWEVER, SHOULD LOWER GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MORE AROUND 12-15KTS, BEFORE WE SEE YET ANOTHER SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS,
HAVE EXTENDED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FROM BRENTON SOUND TO
GMZ577 ON SOUTH FOR MAINLY SE LA GULF AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1-2FT FOR NEARSHORE/PROTECTED WATERS
TO AROUND 2-4FT FOR OUTER GULF WATERS WITH NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 92 69 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 91 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 92 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 90 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 91 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...KLG
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