607
FXUS64 KLIX 112318
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
618 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
RATHER BENIGN FORECAST CONTINUES WITH TODAY THE LAST
DAY BEFORE WE START SEEING HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. BY 18Z MOST
OF THE AREA WAS STILL IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 90S EXPECTED FOR
HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS ANTICIPATED RADAR IS QUIET AND EVEN
THE CU FIELD IS REALLY STRUGGLING. THIS MORNINGS SNDG MEASURED A PW
OF 1.18 WHILE GOES19 TPW HAD ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW 1" TO 1.2"
ACROSS THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. SNDG SHOWED ANY MOISTURE THAT IS
AVAILABLE IS IN THE LL AND THUS WHY WE AREA ONLY SEEING A WEAK AND
STRUGGLING CU FIELD. WHERE THE PWS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 1.1 OR
LOWER WE AREN'T EVEN GETTING THAT.
FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. IT IS
EITHER THE RETURN OF HOT WEATHER AND WE SAY HOT AND NOT REALLY HEAT
OR OPPRESSIVE BECAUSE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH IMPRESSIVE MIXING
OF THE BL AND LL. THE OTHER MINOR ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SOME NUISANCE
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
FIRST THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER TX STILL
EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BY SATURDAY EVENING
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OF PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AND THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN
THE MODELS IS THAT THE EAST COAST L/W TROUGH RESPONDS DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY WHILE A BROAD L/W TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS NOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES IN THE EXTENDED BUT MORE ON
THAT LATER. THE BUILDING RIDGE MOVING CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION WILL
ALLOW THE HOTTER TEMPS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR AND DOWN THE MS DELTA).
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE
IT MAY BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA (THIS IS RELATIVE
TO FRIDAY AND SATRUDAY'S HIGHS AS IT WILL NOT BE COOL). THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE ACTUALLY SHIFTS NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORE
TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND THROUGH THE LL AND MID LVLS WILL ALMOST SHUT
DOWN THE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT
MIXING OVER INLAND AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
SEA/LAKE BREEZE. IN FACT WE COULD EVEN MIX AS HIGHS AS H8 TO H75.
WHAT EVER MOISTURE IS PRESENT WILL BE SKIN DEEP SO MIXING OUT THAT
HIGH WILL DRIVE THE DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AND THAT AT
LEAST WILL HELP KEEP THE HEAT POTENTIAL ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A
RATHER LIMITED HEAT RISK POTENTIAL. THIS ALSO SUGGEST USING AT LEAST
H85 AS A DECENT MIX DOWN TEMP FOR THE FCST. WHICH IS AROUND 17-
19/20C TOMORROW AND COULD TOP OUT AROUND 21C ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWMS
ALONG WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE BR METRO ON SATURDAY. THIS
MIXED DOWN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 33-35C AND GIVEN HOW DRY WE
ARE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES F FOR A SUPER-ADIABATIC SKIN
LAYER. TOMORROW HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 90S FOR ALMOST EVERYONE
POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 94/95 IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH MID 90S
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY. IF THE H85 TEMP
DOES CLIMB TO 21C THEN IT WOULD NOT BE A COMPLETE SHOCK WE SEE A FEW
SITES TOP OUT AROUND 96/97 BUT AM HOLDING OFF ON THAT FOR NOW AS THE
NBM DID BACK DOWN FROM WHAT IT HAD YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER LL TEMPS SHOWN BY A FEW MODELS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS TIME
TO HEAT UP. AGAIN SUNDAY COULD BE A 1-3 DEGREES COOLER ONLY BECAUSE
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH/NORTH-NORTHEAST.
AS FOR THE TIDES WE ARE MOVING INTO A SPRING TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND IT WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT MUCH OF THE COAST COULD SEE TIDES AROUND 1 TO 1.5
MHHW WHICH IS WHAT WE USE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL INUNDATION. THIS IS
AROUND 0.5 TO ALMOST 1' ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH IS A LITTLE
INTERESTING. WHERE IS THE WATER COMING FROM AND WHY IS IT EXPECTED
TO BE THAT MUCH ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SINCE WE WILL HAVE A
RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ALL WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH IT MAY BE
EASTERLY IN THE OPEN WATER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WITH THAT NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT WE WILL SEE THE
TIDES AS HIGH AS SOME MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER IT SPRING TIDE AND IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET SOME WATER OF NORMALLY DRY AREAS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS QUIET AND COULD
STILL BE RATHER HOT BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME NOTICEABLE SHIFTS IN
THE FCST. UP THROUGH MON DAY THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT
START TO REALLY DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AFTER IT HAS MOVED NORTH. AT THE TIME
THE ECMWF HAS THROWN THE BIGGEST CURVE BALL CUTTING OFF THE BASE OF
THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE SERN CONUS AND RIDING THE RIDGE OVER TOP OF
IT WELL INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS/GFES/ECS/GEM/CMCE ARE ALL IN
MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE L/W TROUGH BASE EITHER CUTTING OFF FARTHER
NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OR NOT CUTTING OFF AT ALL AND
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD RIGHT BACK DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT SAID ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND SIMILAR FCST TO START THE
WEEK WITH TUESDAY POSSIBLY NOT BEING NEARLY AS HOT AS THE MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. IN FACT THE NBM HAS DROPPED FORECAST
HIGHS AROUND 2-4 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK FROM MID TO UPPER 90S
OVER THE AREA TO HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 93 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE LATEST
NBM WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST.
AS ALREADY HINTED AT THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS HOW THE EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH EVOLVES AND THE KEY MAY BE THE RIDGE SUNDAY
EVENING. IF THE CORE OF THAT RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES IT COULD ALLOW THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO BREAK AND
BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS WOULD ACTUALLY KEEP THE
HOTTER LL TEMPS FROM BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND THUS WHY THE NBM
HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THE EXTREME TEMPS. EVEN IF THE RIDGE DOESN'T
DO THAT BECAUSE OF HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON MONDAY IT STILL KEEPS THE RIDGE AND WARMER
LL TEMPS FROM BUILDING INTO OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MAY
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO STAY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S. AFTER
TUESDAY A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AND WHERE IF
THAT CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS. /CAB/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY 17-23Z PRIMARILY
BEARING 030-050 AT AROUND 06-08KTS. WILL ALSO SEE A MINOR WIND
SHIFT FROM 160-180 FOR KHUM, KHDC, KASD AND KGPT AROUND 20-23Z
FROM A SEA/LAKEBREEZE PASSAGE, BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THRU
THE FORECAST CYCLE. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE
BEING CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RATHER WEAK SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. CLOSER TO THE COAST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH THE SEABREEZE/LAKE BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO 10-12KT OVER THE MS SOUND DURING THAT TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE A WEAK LAND BREEZE
EVENTUALLY TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUNDS, TIDAL LAKES, AND
PROTECTED WATERS. NO MENTION OF STORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS TILL
NEXT WEEK AND THAT IS MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 70 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 66 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 73 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 70 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 64 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...CAB
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