718
FXUS64 KLIX 120444
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 TO
7 DAYS WITH A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60'S EACH DAY FOLLOWING AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL REDUCE ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
QUIET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN US PROMOTING CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY, SKIMMING
OVER THE LATEST 00Z HREF SUITE OF GUIDANCE (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS), MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOOK A CLOSER LOOK INTO THIS UTILIZING
RECENT RAP GUIDANCE AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS... CAN'T FULLY RULE IT
OUT! SUBTLE/WEAK H5 PVA ALONG NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH NOTICEABLY SLIGHTLY GREATER AVAILABLE VERTICAL
INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE LCL/UPPER PBL AND BASE OF THE H5 MID-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL SUPPORT SHALLOW GROWTH/ASCENT DURING PEAK HEATING,
LIKELY AS WIDESPREAD SPOTTY CU FIELD AND...COULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT
TO SPIT OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. ESPECIALLY, WHERE WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW MEETS THE DEVELOPING LAND/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
AIDING IN LOCALIZED CONFLUENCE AND LIFT. HOURLY NBM PPI GUIDANCE
CAME IN LOW, LIKELY DUE TO THE BLENDING OF CAMS. SPATIAL
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT FEED INTO THE GUIDANCE
OFTEN INTRODUCE A LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF ISOLATED SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SPATIALLY TO 10-14%, BUT WAS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.
WILL WATCH HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BUT TOMORROW, A COUPLE OF RANDOM
LUCKY SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. SOME OF
THIS MAY LAST TOWARDS SUNSET, BUT SHOULD DIE OFF AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WE'LL SEE HOW (OR
IF) THIS PLAYS OUT.
ONLY OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO DEWPOINTS INTRODUCING THE
25TH PERCENTILE BETWEEN 18-23Z, WHICH SO FAR HAS BEEN VERIFYING
WELL WHICH PRODUCES MINRH'S INTO THE 40 TO 30% RANGE DURING PEAK
MIXING. OVERALL NOT A BAD NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD IN THIS QUIET/CALM
PATTERN! KLG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... STILL QUIET! THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN
ILLUSTRATES LONGWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING FORM THE SOUTHERN US WELL
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES, ATTEMPTING TO NUDGE OUR WAY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S. CONTINENTAL DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP AFTERNOONS GENERALLY DRIER INTO
THE 60'S, KEEPING EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS DOWN.
ADDITIONALLY, WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERLY FLOW AND HOW
THAT'LL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH TIDAL CYCLES (GOING INTO SPRING
TIDE CYCLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW THE
FLOW/PATTERN WILL ENHANCE THE INCREASED TIDE CYCLES, PERHAPS
MORESO BEING JUST A SLIGHT INFLUENCE CAUSING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES, AND COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ATLEAST FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK CO. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON GUIDANCE AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT FOR NOW, IMPACTS APPEAR
LIMITED/MINOR. KLG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY 17-23Z PRIMARILY BEARING 030-050 AT
AROUND 06-08KTS. WILL ALSO SEE A MINOR WIND SHIFT FROM 160-180 FOR
KHUM, KHDC, KASD AND KGPT AROUND 20-23Z FROM A SEA/LAKEBREEZE
PASSAGE, BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST CYCLE.
KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY MARINE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
FOR GULF WATERS, BUT WILL BE LESS FOR PROTECTED WATERS WITH
WAVES/SEAS 1-2FT FOR NEARSHORE TO 2-4FT FOR OUTER GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 92 67 91 / 0 10 10 0
BTR 69 94 70 94 / 0 10 10 0
ASD 66 92 67 91 / 0 10 10 0
MSY 73 94 75 93 / 0 0 10 0
GPT 69 91 70 89 / 0 10 10 0
PQL 66 92 67 91 / 0 10 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG
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