443
FXUS64 KLIX 121733
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY QUIET WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S IN COASTAL AREAS AND INTO THE MID 90S FOR
MORE INTERIOR AREAS. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN IN THE
AFTERNOONS, MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 95
DEGREES EACH DAY.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION, THOUGH A FEW
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL, RAIN
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE 10% OR LOWER AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, SO
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE CARRIED IN THE FORECASTS.
THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THAT PROBABILISTIC TIDE
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR/NUISANCE
COASTAL FLOODING AS EARLY AS HIGH TIDE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
IN SOME LOCATIONS, PEAKING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY'S HIGH TIDE.
THIS ISN'T OUR "TYPICAL" COASTAL FLOOD SET UP AS WE DON'T REALLY
HAVE A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER, GOING INTO
THE SPRING TIDE CYCLE, IT DOEN'T TAKE A WHOLE LOT TO PUSH WATER
LEVELS UP TO THE POINT OF SEEING MINOR IMPACTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT AS THE CONDITIONS LOOK VERY BORDERLINE,
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS IS LOW, AND IF IMPACTS DO OCCUR THE
IMPACTS WOULD BE VERY MINOR, ONLY RESULTING IN SOME MINOR PONDING
ON SOME OF THE LOWEST LYING ROADS AND LOTS. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND
CONTINUES, WILL LIKELY NEED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR
HIGH TIDES BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AND THINKING
THROUGH THE LONG TERM GIVEN A PRETTY PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
WEATHER QUIET.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEPENDING ON LOCATION,
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT
OF MINOR/NUISANCE TYPE COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE SPRING TIDE CYCLE PEAKING MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, IT CURRENTLY LOOKS AS THOUGH ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST IN SOME AREAS FOR EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (7KTS OR LESS)
AND OUTSIDE OF LAKE/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES SHOULD MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE
10-15KT RANGE FOR GULF WATERS, BUT WILL BE LIGHTER IN PROTECTED
WATERS. WAVES AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT FOR
NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS WITH 2-4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 91 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 70 94 69 92 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 67 91 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 75 93 73 91 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 70 89 68 90 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 67 91 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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