136
FXUS64 KLIX 131729
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
IN A PERSISTENCE PATTERN, IT'S THE SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY.
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY LOCKED IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET AS FAR AS
THE LOCAL WEATHER IS CONCERNED, WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING LOWS,
WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS, AND NO REAL RAIN CHANCES WORTH
MENTIONING.
PROBABILISTIC TIDE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY'S AFD,
THIS ISN'T OUR TYPICAL COASTAL FLOOD SET UP. WE DON'T HAVE
PERSISTENT/ESTABLISHED ONSHORE WINDS WITH DIRECTION VARYING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND/SEA BREEZES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ONSHORE WINDS THAT DO OCCUR ARE GENERALLY ONLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE. EVEN BACKING OUT FOR INFLUENCES BEYOND THE
LOCAL AREA, THERE'S NO SWELL TRAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA EITHER.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE'S NO CLEAR REASON WHY THE MODEL IS
PERFORMING THE WAY IT IS, AND THUS THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN ITS OUTPUT. ADDITIONALLY, VALUES TODAY APPEAR TO
HAVE COME DOWN SOME SINCE YESTERDAY'S RUN, AND THE TIDE CYCLE LAST
NIGHT DID NOT REACH THE VALUES THAT WERE FORECAST YESTERDAY. ALL
THINGS CONSIDERED, HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN HOLD OFF ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS.
THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR IMPACTS
IS ALONG HWY 315 SOUTH OF HOUMA. LAST NIGHT'S TIDE CYCLE AT PORT
FOURCHON WAS BASICALLY RIGHT AT FLOOD STAGE, PEAKING AT 0.9 FT
MHHW. WHEN WATER REACHES THIS LEVEL AT THE PORT FOURCHON GAUGE, IT
TYPICALLY BEGINS TO CREEP ONTO SOME OF THE LOWEST LYING SECTIONS
OF THE HIGHWAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A COUPLE INCHES
HIGHER TONIGHT SIMPLY OWING TO THE INCREASING SPRING TIDE WHICH
WILL PEAK DURING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. AGAIN,
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR AND LOCALIZED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
STILL LOOKING AT BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TO CHANGE AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN PLACE LOCALLY.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S
SOUTH, HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND NO RAIN CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
REGARDING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COASTAL FLOOD THREAT. WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE MONITORING OBSERVATIONS AND HOW THEY COMPARE TO THE
MODEL OUTPUT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED. SPRING TIDE LEVELS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, MAKING THAT TIME FRAME THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING OF ANY COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES. REGARDLESS OF
HEADLINES, ANY IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINOR, ONLY AFFECTING SOME OF
THE LOWEST LYING COASTAL ROADS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY
EAST/NORTHEAST OUTSIDE OF LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE 10-15KT RANGE FOR GULF
WATERS, BUT WILL BE LIGHTER IN PROTECTED WATERS. WAVES AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT FOR NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS WITH 2-
4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 71 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 66 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 74 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 68 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 65 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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