437
FXUS64 KLIX 140512
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1212 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
OVERALL IT WAS ANOTHER HOT DRY DAY YESTERDAY BUT SURPRISINGLY NOT
EVERYONE STAYED DRY. IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE WAS
ACTUALLY A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED. THAT WAS CONTAINED TO MAINLY
A FEW PARISHES AND ONE COASTAL MS COUNTY BUT EVEN WITH THE RATHER
DRY ENVIRONMENT WE STILL HAD A COUPLE STORMS.
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY AND EVEN THOUGH THE
FORECAST WON'T SPECIFICALLY SHOW ANY RAIN, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE THOSE ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE ALONG THE SELA
COASTAL PARISHES. AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE MORE TO THE NORTH
THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SUBTLE LIFT ACROSS THE COAST. THE ONE
LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO SHOULD BE
ALONG THE SELA COAST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THE RIDGE WILL STILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A HOLD ON THE REGION TO LEAD TO ANOTHER RATHER WARM
DAY. WE HAVE BEEN MIXING TO ABOVE H8 THE LAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING UP
TO H7 ON FRIDAY. VERY LIKELY TO MIX ABOVE H8 AGAIN TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LOW HUMIDITY DAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AGAIN.
LOOKING AT THE TIDES, AS WE HAVE BEEN MENTIONING FOR THE PAST 3-4
DAYS PROBABILISTIC EXTRA-TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT
REALLY HAMMERING MORE ON TODAY AND MONDAY. THAT HAS NOW BACKED OFF.
YES WE ARE MOVING INTO THE PEAK OF THE MONTHLY SPRING TIDE BUT THIS
SET UP WAS NEVER A SET UP FOR COASTAL FLOODING. TYPICALLY WE NEED
SOME FETCH TO SETUP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS
OUT OF THE SE OR ESE AND THAT NEVER OCCURRED. WITH THE GUIDANCE
FINALLY BACKING OFF THE RISK OF NEEDING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
DOESN'T APPEAR NECESSARY. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
LAST WEEK MODELS WERE TRYING TO ADVERTISE SOME RATHER EXTREME
TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL STILL BE
WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING AS EXTREME AS MODELS WERE
INDICATING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE NBM LOOKS CONSISTENT. WITH THAT NO
DEVIATIONS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM THE LATEST NBM.
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING US THIS MID SEPTEMBER HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND THE BASE OF THE EAST COAST L/W TROUGH
CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SERN CONUS COAST. IT WILL BE RATHER LARGE
LIKELY PROVIDING SOME MILD INFLUENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHICH MAY KEEP THE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S INSTEAD
OF WIDESPREAD MID 90S. AS THE CLOSED MID LVL LOW STARTS TO FILL AND
MERGE WITH THE MAIN FLOW THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS A L/W TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
ONLY ISOLATED AT THE BEST THU AND FRI. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND UNLESS THE ONE OR TWO
STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY
ONE OF THOSE TERMINALS IT WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE INNER WATERS, SOUNDS, AND TIDAL LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE INFLUENCED BY DAILY FLUCTUATIONS FROM SEA/LAKE BREEZE TO LAND
BREEZE. WAVES/SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT FOR NEARSHORE
AND PROTECTED WATERS WITH 2-4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 92 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 90 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 92 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 90 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 91 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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