443
FXUS64 KLIX 150538
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SO WHAT CAN WE SAY ABOUT YESTERDAY THAT WAS DIFFERENT,
WELL WE DIDN'T GET THOSE FEW STORMS LIKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO,
BASICALLY IT WAS SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS IT WAS ANOTHER
RATHER TOASTY DAY. WE MIXED QUITE WELL, PRACTICALLY TO H7 AGAIN AND
WITH THAT DEWPOINTS PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COASTAL
AREAS SAW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SEABREEZE MOVED
THROUGH.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ALOFT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
AT THE BASE OF THE EAST COAST L/W TROUGH BEGINS TO HAVE A LITTLE
MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION. THIS MAY ACTUALLY ALREADY BEGINNING TO HELP MOISTEN
THE COLUMN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH HAS STARTED TO SLIDE BACK DOWN INTO THE REGION. THE PW FROM
THIS EVENINGS SNDG WAS 1.46" AND THERE IS DEFINITELY MORE MOISTURE
IN THE MID LVLS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME VERY
SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY IN THE LL MORE SO TUESDAY THAN TODAY. WITH
THAT THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUBSIDENCE
THANKS TO THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PUSHING AWAY SOME, AND VERY WEAK
MID LVL FORCING FROM STRONGER MID LVL WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SERN CONUS MAY ACTUALLY LEAD TO ISOLATED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT SAID IT IS MORE LIKELY
THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SPECIFICALLY MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT POPS
WILL BE JUST BELOW 15% IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OTHER THAN THAT HONESTLY THE FCST REMAINS QUIET AND HOT TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT RATHER WELL WITH DEWPOINTS
LIKELY MIXING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. TUESDAY DEWPOINTS AS THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH DRIER AIR
TO MIX DOWN. H85 TEMPS AROUND 17 TO POSSIBLY 19C CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 90-94 DEGREE RANGE BUT THAT IS A FAR CRY FROM
WHAT MODELS WERE SUGGESTING LAST WEEK WHERE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS MODELS
WERE ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH EVEN A FEW HUNDREDS IN
OUR FAR NORTHWEST. LIKE MENTIONED LAST WEEK THAT BECOMES EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT THE DEEPER WE GET INTO SEPTEMBER AS THERE IS JUST LESS
DAYLIGHT AND WARMING COMPARED TO JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LVL PATTERN. RAIN CHANCE WILL
FINALLY INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING AT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. OVERALL NBM LOOKS GOOD AND NO
MAJOR DEVIATIONS MADE FROM IT.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTH AND OPEN BACK UP BY
THU. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS KEEPS THE AREA RATHER WARM BUT
THERE DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT AND THAT WILL SLIDE INTO
THE REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS THURSDAY BY MORE SO
FRIDAY. THAT SAID THE POPS ARE STILL ONLY AROUND 20 FRIDAY. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW FOR STORMS TO RETURN. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND UNLESS THE ONE OR TWO
STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY
ONE OF THOSE TERMINALS IT WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
CONTINUED BENIGN CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A EASTERLY
COMPONENT OVER THE WATERS. THE INNER WATERS, SOUNDS, AND TIDAL LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY DAILY FLUCTUATIONS FROM SEA/LAKE
BREEZE TO LAND BREEZE. WAVES AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2
FT FOR NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS WITH 2-4 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 92 69 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 93 71 93 69 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 90 68 90 67 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 89 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 90 66 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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