495
FXUS64 KLIX 161746
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE 10% OR LOWER.
MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN LATER THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND,
I'VE GOT BAD NEWS... THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
IS LOOKING PRETTY BLEAK AT THIS POINT. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
MID/UPPER MISS VALLEY LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MUCH FARTHER
NORTH, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEVER REALLY EXTENDING THIS FAR SOUTH.
THAT WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA LOOSELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WHILE
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS HERE AND THERE, THE
OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN BELOW 20% AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA
WEATHER. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST, EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS, THOUGH DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES ARE LIKELY DUE TO SEA/LAKE/LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS, SOUNDS, AND TIDAL LAKES. WAVES AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT FOR NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS WITH 2-
4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 91 66 91 / 10 20 0 0
BTR 70 92 69 93 / 20 20 0 10
ASD 68 90 66 91 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 73 92 73 92 / 0 10 0 10
GPT 70 89 68 88 / 0 10 0 0
PQL 66 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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