934
FXUS64 KLIX 162322
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE 10% OR LOWER.
MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN LATER THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND,
I'VE GOT BAD NEWS... THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
IS LOOKING PRETTY BLEAK AT THIS POINT. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
MID/UPPER MISS VALLEY LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MUCH FARTHER
NORTH, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEVER REALLY EXTENDING THIS FAR SOUTH.
THAT WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA LOOSELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WHILE
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS HERE AND THERE, THE
OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN BELOW 20% AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED IN THE PAST HOUR AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
LOW RISK OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR BTR AND MCB AFTER 18Z, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT IMPACT
ON A TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA
WEATHER. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST, EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS, THOUGH DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES ARE LIKELY DUE TO SEA/LAKE/LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS, SOUNDS, AND TIDAL LAKES. WAVES AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT FOR NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS WITH 2-
4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 90 66 91 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 69 91 69 92 / 20 20 0 0
ASD 67 90 65 90 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 74 92 73 91 / 0 10 0 0
GPT 69 89 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 65 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...DM
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