936
FXUS64 KLIX 170450
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1150 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
AROUND 700MB. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT OF AROUND 1.3 TO 1.4
INCHES TOMORROW COULD SUPPORT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER 90S IS ACHIEVED. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED, BUT A 20 PERCENT POP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE GREATEST. BY THURSDAY, INCREASED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.1 INCHES, AND THIS WILL PROHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM DEVELOPING AS DRY AIR FROM ALOFT FULLY MIXES INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THIS DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE HAS ALSO LED TO THE USE
OF NBM 10TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR THE DEWPOINT FORECAST. THIS
RESULTS IN DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, AND
ALSO SUPPORTS A LARGER DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS EASILY DIPPING
INTO THE MID 60S OVER INLAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. HIGHS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS THE DRY AIR HEATS UP BENEATH THE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY SHORT-
LIVED AND THE FORECAST HAS NO MENTION OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE WEATHER IN THE GULF SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE HUMID AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF SOUTH. THIS DEEPER TROUGH WILL DRAW SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. POP OF
AROUND 30 PERCENT REFLECTS THIS CONVECTIVE RISK WELL. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEAK, A FEW OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR BTR AND MCB AFTER 18Z, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A
DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
OVERALL, A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
MINOR DIRECTIONAL CHANGES ARE LIKELY DUE TO SEA/LAKE/LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, SOUNDS, AND TIDAL LAKES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WAVES AND SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT FOR NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS
WITH 2- 4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, NO
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE MARITIME COMMUNITY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 91 67 92 / 10 20 10 0
BTR 71 91 69 92 / 10 20 10 0
ASD 68 90 67 90 / 10 10 10 0
MSY 74 90 73 89 / 10 10 10 0
GPT 69 88 69 88 / 0 10 10 0
PQL 66 89 68 89 / 0 10 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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